News Round Up

[George4]

This is telling. I think many of the APs at Disneyland can sympathize with your point as well.

There's just one problem. You keep doing it anyway. You and millions of others just keep on going to Disney in the face of price hikes and cost cutting.

Sort of, but not really. I keep going, but I spend less every year. I enjoy my time in WDW, but I no longer purchase the PAP because I won't spend that much time in the parks any more. My 12-20 day summer vacations are down to about 7 days in the parks and eating at the restaurants. The rest of the time, I purchase groceries at the store and cook my own meals. We now spend the second half of our vacation at the pool and in our resort. I can't even begin to guess at how much of my money Disney doesn't get any more, but it is in the thousands of dollars every year. I can't think that I am the only one that is changing my habits in the wake of not enough to do in these parks. We don't even do the water parks anymore. It is still a great vacation, but we can do most everything in a few days that we want to. If we have time left in the days that we have park passes, then we repeat some stuff or visit other attractions. PAP to 5 or 7 day pass is a big difference times 6. And that doesn't count the people that vow to never return to Disney after their first trip, and I know 5 families that fit that bill.

Disney is costing themselves money, and not everyone just keeps going. Are there people still going? Absolutely. Could it be a lot more than are there currently? Absolutely. Could Disney get more of my (and people like me) money? Absolutely.

 

[DDLand]

Actually, it is both. You hit on it in the rest of your post. MK is maxed out, and the other parks need to pull some of that away. The rest of your discussion sort of matches my thoughts on the subject.

I think we do converge some, however there's a critical difference. You see those parks not having the capacity. I see those parks having poorly utilized capacity and needing a few draws.

 

[DDLand]

Sort of, but not really. I keep going, but I spend less every year. I enjoy my time in WDW, but I no longer purchase the PAP because I won't spend that much time in the parks any more. My 12-20 day summer vacations are down to about 7 days in the parks and eating at the restaurants. The rest of the time, I purchase groceries at the store and cook my own meals. We now spend the second half of our vacation at the pool and in our resort. I can't even begin to guess at how much of my money Disney doesn't get any more, but it is in the thousands of dollars every year. I can't think that I am the only one that is changing my habits in the wake of not enough to do in these parks. We don't even do the water parks anymore. It is still a great vacation, but we can do most everything in a few days that we want to. If we have time left in the days that we have park passes, then we repeat some stuff or visit other attractions. PAP to 5 or 7 day pass is a big difference times 6. And that doesn't count the people that vow to never return to Disney after their first trip, and I know 5 families that fit that bill.

Disney is costing themselves money, and not everyone just keeps going. Are there people still going? Absolutely. Could it be a lot more than are there currently? Absolutely. Could Disney get more of my (and people like me) money? Absolutely.

The interesting thing is it appears Disney is getting the maximum amount of money it will get from you. I doubt that new rides are going to compel you to buy more food. You're simply spending the same money in a different way. Whereas you may have spent that money on food and a ticket now you're spending it almost all on food. It's true that some is lost in the mix going to the grocery store but that is negligible. They're just not losing enough money to justify any pricing changes.

 

[George4]

Your solution to crowd problems boils down to build more. Disney's is send them somewhere else. I think Disney has got something there...

I think my philosophy is closer to Disney's than you think (or is coming across at least). I think the crowds need to be pulled from MK, and I don't mind if they attract more people, PROVIDED that they move those crowds more balanced to their other WDW properties. MK has nearly twice the attendance of DHS and AK. If you took the same 50 million people that visit WDW each year, and spread them almost evenly (more will always go to MK) across the 4 parks, you would see attendance jump by about 8,000-10,000 people per day at the non-MK parks. That is roughly a 50% increase at DHS and AK, and those parks aren't prepared to handle that influx of people. That is why I believe that a fairly major building campaign is needed. It will also balance the value of visiting the parks, and might bring more people back to the parks and WDW in general, but those visitors would more evenly spread, so the impact on one park isn't so dramatic. It creates a better visit for everyone involved, and gets us to what I was talking about above - that it takes 9-10 days to do everything you want, but only have a 7-day vacation. Now you are driving repeat visits, and from more people as well.

Lets get really crazy for a minute and look through the Reedy Creek future plans and land use plans and see that there are close to 17,000 hotel rooms preparing to come online over the next 10 years (maybe, these are general plans not building permits), as well as one minor park and potentially one major park. While I don't see that as realistic at this point, it does show that the number of hotel rooms they are planning to add could really over-tax the existing structure (capacity) of the parks.

This may be why my opinions (and Dreams) appear mixed. Current maxed facilities, my vacations (and some friends) are spending less money, and potential future additions are working towards the parks becoming difficult to enjoy.

 

[George4]

The interesting thing is it appears Disney is getting the maximum amount of money it will get from you. I doubt that new rides are going to compel you to buy more food. You're simply spending the same money in a different way. Whereas you may have spent that money on food and a ticket now you're spending it almost all on food. It's true that some is lost in the mix going to the grocery store but that is negligible. They're just not losing enough money to justify any pricing changes.

Not true. I used to purchase a PAP for all 6 member of my family, and went to the parks for 10-11 of our 12 days there, or 16-17 days of our 19 days there. When we are in a park, we purchase their food. It's vacation, I no interest in packing food and carrying it all day. Now that I only purchase a 5 or 7 day regular pass, they have lost the difference in cost of the tickets, plus the additional 5-9 days worth of food purchased in parks. All of that times 6, I figure they are losing around $4,000 from my family alone, maybe a little more. Is that much to Disney? Absolutely not, if I was the only one changing my habits. Lets say 1% of the visitors are changing their habits or not coming back to Disney after their first trip because of their frustrations. If 500,000 people trim their spending by around $600 per person, that's around $300,000,000 that Disney isn't collecting each year from visitors. Does that seem like a lot money? It is probably lofty to say 1% of people are changing habits, cut that number in half. That is around 2% of their total profit for the year.

Maybe that is a big chunk of change after all.

 

[George4]

I think we do converge some, however there's a critical difference. You see those parks not having the capacity. I see those parks having poorly utilized capacity and needing a few draws.

You may be correct here. We also diverge a little in how to solve the problem, but we are probably closer than we see right now. Besides, this is a dialogue for our dreams as they relate to news items. I don't have the false belief that my dreams will ever come true. But, I must dream big.

 

[rteetz]

That's interesting. Of course there'll be a shorterm pop when it opens, but do you think it will be sustained? That's the really big question. I personally can't wait for those views. The nightime Safari is going to be amazing. (Even if there are no animals the landscape should just be amazing)

Yeah, the Downtown Disney Resort Area is cramped. I wasn't saying necessarily that it would be in that area but just anywhere property wide. We could see the reemergence of Wilderness Junction. There are options. Flamingo crossing is still pretty small, with hotel capacity additions of a couple hundred rooms if I recall. If Disney goes all in think of Art of A and what Universal is doing.

Yes I think AK will see a long term boost because it is a full day park and there will be more to do. I'm not talking passing Epcot boost but maybe going from 10 to 11 million visitors or so.

 

[DDLand]

You may be correct here. We also diverge a little in how to solve the problem, but we are probably closer than we see right now. Besides, this is a dialogue for our dreams as they relate to news items. I don't have the false belief that my dreams will ever come true. But, I must dream big.

I think this is a good place to leave it. I'll let you have the last word. I don't want to clutter up the news roundup anymore.

 

[DDLand]

Yes I think AK will see a long term boost because it is a full day park and there will be more to do. I'm not talking passing Epcot boost but maybe going from 10 to 11 million visitors or so.

I think that's reasonable. I'm just wondering how many will be new guest v. Just retaining guests. I'm excited about ROL to get a pulse. Though I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Epcot continues to stagnate and DAK surpasses it. Possible.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Epcot was one of the greatest privately financed construction projects in history... And the first and some would argue the only thing of its kind...

Any talk of it purposefully stagnating or being marginalized shows a lack of respect/failure to acknowledge history by the management and the paying public.

In fact... If you want a brutal indictment of current or recent management - frame it as "Disney executives fail to identify the value of history"

I can think of nothing more scathing...cut to the bone.

 

[twebber55]

I totally agree, the Cars property is going to be around and very popular for a long, long time just like so many of the Disney properties. Just for one *Peter Pan*, 40 years old and attraction line of 1 or 2 hours. Disney attraction touch the heart of millions over and over again and the fan flock to them and stay loyal. The attendance at DL went up23% in the first year after Carsland opened(much better then the new HP diagom alley did) and new Cars attraction will do the same as the movies continue.

Their will always be some folks that need the next new thing NOW!. However the vast number of millions of Disney fans love the Disney brand and quality and it passes generation to generation.

look im a fan of disney but im not sure Peter Pan is that popular as you say...the ride capacity is not great is the reason why the waits are that long...the Peter Pan show they just had on TV was a complete flop...also no numbers have come out on Diagon Alley in terms of attendance other than the ridiculous amounts of money they made (up 30%)...
i dont remember the actual numbers for cars land spike in attendance but im thinking 23% is a bit high, maybe more like 15% but i could be wrong....and dont take this the wrong way because i think carsland looks incredible...execution was incredible some of the best ever in fact....im more of an execution guy than IP guy anyway

edit i was wrong it was 23% my bad.... i will also say that part of that, as well as WWOHP, increase was from people skipping that park the previous year..whats impressive about Universal was that they added Transformers and Simpsons area the year before DA and they grew quite a bit....
again i love both parks and i expect big things at WDW over the next 5 years
2016-ROL, Frozen, TSMM, Soarin, Disney Springs
2017- Pandora
of course Universal has big things coming
2016- Kong
2017- Kidszone redo

 

[DDLand]

Not true. I used to purchase a PAP for all 6 member of my family, and went to the parks for 10-11 of our 12 days there, or 16-17 days of our 19 days there. When we are in a park, we purchase their food. It's vacation, I no interest in packing food and carrying it all day. Now that I only purchase a 5 or 7 day regular pass, they have lost the difference in cost of the tickets, plus the additional 5-9 days worth of food purchased in parks. All of that times 6, I figure they are losing around $4,000 from my family alone, maybe a little more. Is that much to Disney? Absolutely not, if I was the only one changing my habits. Lets say 1% of the visitors are changing their habits or not coming back to Disney after their first trip because of their frustrations. If 500,000 people trim their spending by around $600 per person, that's around $300,000,000 that Disney isn't collecting each year from visitors. Does that seem like a lot money? It is probably lofty to say 1% of people are changing habits, cut that number in half. That is around 2% of their total profit for the year.

Maybe that is a big chunk of change after all.

One note. Disney has to choose between high ticket prices v. higher attendance.

As you pointed out they miss potential merchandising, food, and ticket sales from their price increases. However that 300,000,000 number you cited is offset by millions more willing to spend that money. Most guests are not going to spend more then a week at WDW. Trying to appeal to that small niche market (myself included) at the expense of capturing greater profit from the vast majority of customers is not good business.

If you're arguing that they should be making large additions each year to the parks to draw in that tiny market, that also doesn't make sense. Supposing they were going to spend 500 million on a new E Ticket to appeal to that niche what would they get? Say they get 20% returns on that 300 million which would put profits at 60 million. Between the construction cost of the new ride and increased operating costs incurred by the ride Disney would still not end up making more money short term.

It would take years before Disney would have the return on investment they're looking for. The problem with your argument is if by the time they had recovered costs the ride would already cease to placate the niche and they would've started reducing trip size again.

My question would be how much more time would you spend at the parks if they did open up a new ride? A day? Two days? Three? It seems unlikely one ride could make you do that. More likely Disney is pricing that niche out (myself included).

 

[Tonka's Skipper]

look im a fan of disney but im not sure Peter Pan is that popular as you say...the ride capacity is not great is the reason why the waits are that long...the Peter Pan show they just had on TV was a complete flop...also no numbers have come out on Diagon Alley in terms of attendance other than the ridiculous amounts of money they made (up 30%)...
i dont remember the actual numbers for cars land spike in attendance but im thinking 23% is a bit high, maybe more like 15% but i could be wrong....and dont take this the wrong way because i think carsland looks incredible...execution was incredible some of the best ever in fact....im more of an execution guy than IP guy anyway

edit i was wrong it was 23% my bad.... i will also say that part of that, as well as WWOHP, increase was from people skipping that park the previous year..whats impressive about Universal was that they added Transformers and Simpsons area the year before DA and they grew quite a bit....
again i love both parks and i expect big things at WDW over the next 5 years
2016-ROL, Frozen, TSMM, Soarin, Disney Springs
2017- Pandora
of course Universal has big things coming
2016- Kong
2017- Kidszone redo

Peter Pan was just a example, look at IASM, 7DMT, of Snow White, Splash Mountain, the Disney characters, ETC.ETC.ETC. Disney magical stories last and last. To be honest I didn't like the TV version of PP either

As to Diagon Alley I am going by the threads on various sites where now that it as been open for a while, the crowds are not what they wanted. While the theming is great, the main ride is not as good as people expected, to many video screens again.

I also agree both UNI and WDW are growing and building.

 

[skier_pete]

There's a real problem with George's theories of park expansion - the problem being that they could invest a TON of money in these parks and there would only be a SMALL bump in attendance.

See, George you are in a huge minority as someone that used to go for 12-20 days. The VAST majority of park-goers go for 7 days or less. (By VAST I am saying 80-90%.) If Disney were to invest $5 Billion adding major expansions to three of it's parks, that same group of people would spend the exact same amount of money and stay the exact same length of time.

So -expansions aren't about getting people to stay longer anymore, they are about adding capacity to the parks and getting MORE new people to come. The problem (as you guys have been pointed out)is that by letting the other three parks stagnate, MK being the "classic" that it is becomes a bigger and bigger draw. They need to bring the draw to the other parks. It's what they are trying to do with Pandora - not only make AK more attractive, but also make it more of an all-day park.

They also seem to have a short-term plan to increase the draw at Epcot - that increase is called "Frozen". My guess is they will anticipate a significant attendance boost (as high as 5 %) at EPCOT due to that one ride. Unfortunately, my view is this is a short-term boost. The park really needs help.

It LOOKS like they are next going to tackle DHS. Again, the park is NOT a major draw. Bringing more rides for kids in and bringing in a much stronger Star Wars presence is perfect.

Let's hope once THAT well underway they set their sites on Epcot. I would think they have a plan in place there as well.

 

[rteetz]

Peter Pan was just a example, look at IASM, 7DMT, of Snow White, Splash Mountain, the Disney characters, ETC.ETC.ETC. Disney magical stories last and last. To be honest I didn't like the TV version of PP either

As to Diagon Alley I am going by the threads on various sites where now that it as been open for a while, the crowds are not what they wanted. While the theming is great, the main ride is not as good as people expected, to many video screens again.

I also agree both UNI and WDW are growing and building.

And gringotts the new ride was just recently down for three straight days due to issues. The ride goes down a lot it seems. I will says that from some people that have knowledge of it universals expectations for attendance may have been a bit too high.

 

[rteetz]

More photos of the pedestrian bridge

http://www.wdwmagic.com/attractions...ta-drive-arrives-at-the-construction-site.htm

 

[rteetz]

Spirit says an apple store will most likely be coming to Disney Springs. It has been rumored before.

 

[twebber55]

Peter Pan was just a example, look at IASM, 7DMT, of Snow White, Splash Mountain, the Disney characters, ETC.ETC.ETC. Disney magical stories last and last. To be honest I didn't like the TV version of PP either

As to Diagon Alley I am going by the threads on various sites where now that it as been open for a while, the crowds are not what they wanted. While the theming is great, the main ride is not as good as people expected, to many video screens again.

I also agree both UNI and WDW are growing and building.

Agree with most of what you said...Universal was up 30% in revenue for the 4th quarter...astounding really

 

[Andrew015]

I see all of this talk about AK "becoming a full-day park" within this thread, but does anyone beating that drum really, truly buy into that concept? The opening of Pandora's Box is going to net us a whopping two new attractions - of which, one being an E-ticket and the other being a boat ride that "may include small drops". I truly want to get excited about the glowing trees and flying banshees, but when you break this down into its most basic form, I can't help but do anything but yawn.

Look - I love AK as it currently stands today, and truly hope that Pandora is going to become a great addition with incredible theming. But to think that it's going to turn AK into a "full-day park" defies logic. At most, it's going to add another hour to the existing ~3 hours that I normally put into the park as of the present.

Sure, Pandora will definitely create a "buzz" and will have positive sort-term impact on the park's performance for the first few years. But in order for that trend to continue and for AK to become a true "full-day park", the development team would need to have another 2-3 projects of similar size/scope in the pipeline NOW in order for that to even be a possibility by 2025, and they don't. It doesn't take a VP of operations to see through that smoke screen.

IMHO, Pandora is just a "blip" designed to bring a short-term (2-5 year) bump to AK. And this is the crux of my problem with the existing management philosophy. The only thing that the suits care about is the short-term, and for that reason, the only thing we're ever going to see are more short-term "blips" from here on out. These people don't care the Disney history, culture or have the desire to leave a legacy when they're gone. They simply care about the short-term, because NONE of them will be around in a decade when these "blips" begin to fade.

 

[rteetz]

I see all of this talk about AK "becoming a full-day park" within this thread, but does anyone beating that drum really, truly buy into that concept? The opening of Pandora's Box is going to net us a whopping two new attractions - of which, one being an E-ticket and the other being a boat ride that "may include small drops". I truly want to get excited about the glowing trees and flying banshees, but when you break this down into its most basic form, I can't help but do anything but yawn.

Look - I love AK as it currently stands today, and truly hope that Pandora is going to become a great addition with incredible theming. But to think that it's going to turn AK into a "full-day park" defies logic. At most, it's going to add another hour to the existing ~3 hours that I normally put into the park as of the present.

Sure, Pandora will definitely create a "buzz" and will have positive sort-term impact on the park's performance for the first few years. But in order for that trend to continue and for AK to become a true "full-day park", the development team would need to have another 2-3 projects of similar size/scope in the pipeline NOW in order for that to even be a possibility by 2025, and they don't. It doesn't take a VP of operations to see through that smoke screen.

IMHO, Pandora is just a "blip" designed to bring a short-term (2-5 year) bump to AK. And this is the crux of my problem with the existing management philosophy. The only thing that the suits care about is the short-term, and for that reason, the only thing we're ever going to see are more short-term "blips" from here on out. These people don't care the Disney history, culture or have the desire to leave a legacy when they're gone. They simply care about the short-term, because NONE of them will be around in a decade when these "blips" begin to fade.

In my opinion I think there is a lot to do at AK. I think it is already capable at being a full day park. Rivers of light and avatar will add to that. AK has two great shows, they also have some great attractions except for maybe Dino land. They also have many animal treks and encounters throughout the park to take time up. The amount of infrastructure work that is being done at AK really fills in a lot of misses things. The Africa marketplace, new restaurants, the night time show, etc. will all bring a new life. Now it's not on MK level and possibly not even Epcot but it's definitely better than DHS.