ROFR Thread April to June 2016 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[ScubaCat]

PRINCESS MERIDA---$90-$15300-170-BWV-Apr-0/15, 0/16, 120/17, 170/18- sent 5/25

seller pay closing and $309 towards MF for portion of 2017 points used

Disregard my previous comment. I didn't see the seller paying closing cost part. (Should put that in the little box at the bottom in the tool ) The seller covering dues for points already used is standard.

That's a heck of a deal if you can sneak it through. Good luck!

 

[ScubaCat]

Gr8tdame---$90-$15083-150-BWV-Aug-0/14, 0/15, 150/16, 150/17- sent 5/6- taken 5/25

Third one was not a charm...taken today day 19

Sorry! I had my fingers crossed but I had a bad feeling about that one. Unfortunately, $90 is considerably below current market value. Might want to offer at least 96-100 to have a better shot.

4th time's the real charm??

 

[gr8tdame]

Do you have any idea why? Is it the UY or the PPP? We're waiting on BWV too.

The first 2 were Dec UY @ $102 pp and $90 pp. the last one was UY Aug @$90 pp

Perusing the listings for my next contract. Getting tired but nit feeling out of the game yet.

 

[gr8tdame]

Sorry! I had my fingers crossed but I had a bad feeling about that one. Unfortunately, $90 is considerably below current market value. Might want to offer at least 96-100 to have a better shot.

4th time's the real charm??

I was going to offer higher but I just offered the price it was listed at...Agent at Timeshare store did not see it as a problem as they have seen lower pp with loaded contracts approved. The first BW contract that was taken was $102 pp. Go figure.

 

[ruthma]

Ruthma---$83-$8805-100-OKW-SEP-100/16, 100/17, seller paying 2016 MF, sent 4/29 taken 5/25.

 

[gr8tdame]

Ruthma---$83-$8805-100-OKW-SEP-100/16, 100/17, seller paying 2016 MF, sent 4/29 taken 5/25.

So sorry...no logic to what they take. I have had my last 3 contracts for BWV taken.

 

[DizBub]

Ruthma---$83-$8805-100-OKW-SEP-100/16, 100/17, seller paying 2016 MF, sent 4/29 taken 5/25.

I am astonished and so very sorry.

Seems like they are starting to play hardball....

Better luck with the next one.

 

[gr8tdame]

I just spoke to my agent and he was surprised that my BW contract did not pass.
He said this is very rare.

 

[ruthma]

I am astonished and so very sorry.

Seems like they are starting to play hardball....

Better luck with the next one.

At least I'm leaving for Disney in 18 days. I'll think about that. Lol

 

[DizBub]

At least I'm leaving for Disney in 18 days. I'll think about that. Lol

No better place to lick your wounds and plot your next offer.

Hope you have a great trip!

 

[ScubaCat]

I was going to offer higher but I just offered the price it was listed at...Agent at Timeshare store did not see it as a problem as they have seen lower pp with loaded contracts approved. The first BW contract that was taken was $102 pp. Go figure.

True. I guess they're trying to push prices a bit higher. Plus they're selling for $160 a point so if the contract is loaded and it matches someone on the wait list, it's a prime target. It's frustrating, I'm sure, but I'd still offer on another. Eventually one will come through!

 

[MinnieB]

I just spoke to my agent and he was surprised that my BW contract did not pass.
He said this is very rare.

I am not super surprised, although very disappointed for you. My August use year was taken at $96 back in March. Mine had some 2015 points left, which I think made it about equivalent despite a slightly higher price. I do think summer months are a popular use year for the Epcot resorts. Not so sure about your December ones.

Good luck with offer number 4. My ROFR result, followed by the resale rule change, led me to decide DVC probably just isn't for me. I'll continue to stay at the Swan as a Starwood gold member, pay cash, or rent points.

If we hit another economic downturn and prices fall significantly I might reconsider of course.

 

[Tardisblue]

The first 2 were Dec UY @ $102 pp and $90 pp. the last one was UY Aug @$90 pp

Perusing the listings for my next contract. Getting tired but nit feeling out of the game yet.

Sorry to hear it. Good luck with the next one.

 

[Princess Merida]

Gr8tdame---$90-$15083-150-BWV-Aug-0/14, 0/15, 150/16, 150/17- sent 5/6- taken 5/25

Third one was not a charm...taken today day 19

Wow...I'm not getting my hopes up on mine passing since they took all 3 of your BWV. This is our first bid on our first contract so I will just keep looking in case they take ours and they likely will I suppose. Sorry for your bad luck!! I saw somewhere that someone got a BWV through at $76 pp???? I can't believe they are taking $102 pp contract. Pixie dust for all of us

 

[gr8tdame]

Wow...I'm not getting my hopes up on mine passing since they took all 3 of your BWV. This is our first bid on our first contract so I will just keep looking in case they take ours and they likely will I suppose. Sorry for your bad luck!! I saw somewhere that someone got a BWV through at $76 pp???? I can't believe they are taking $102 pp contract. Pixie dust for all of us

Keeping my fingers crossed for you. It may be they are just targeting me because I refused to sign an addendum regarding my membership not being grandfathered in on the first BWV contract I submitted. That was the one at $102 pp.
I will just keep submitting contracts until one passes. Right now trying to decide if I should look at BCV instead...but it is at a much higher price point

 

[JHank44]

Price per point is very crude metric of value of a contract given the various amounts of points banked/borrowed and sharing of closing costs or MFs. I use an annuity formula to value the contracts and then calibrate my discount rate to what has been passing. Based on my analysis, Gr8tdame you have just been submitting below "market" contracts. This does make assumptions and isn't perfect by any means but gives a better sense of what to bid on and at what price to pass. I bid the lowest possible that I thought would pass/accept by seller for my BLT contract which was ~$2 below the "Fair". I'll be curious if Tardisblue and Princess pass but my inclination is yes. It's our job as buyers to test the low in prices but seems that need to bid a bit higher to get into BWV.

 

[Tardisblue]

Price per point is very crude metric of value of a contract given the various amounts of points banked/borrowed and sharing of closing costs or MFs. I use an annuity formula to value the contracts and then calibrate my discount rate to what has been passing. Based on my analysis, Gr8tdame you have just been submitting below "market" contracts. This does make assumptions and isn't perfect by any means but gives a better sense of what to bid on and at what price to pass. I bid the lowest possible that I thought would pass/accept by seller for my BLT contract which was ~$2 below the "Fair". I'll be curious if Tardisblue and Princess pass but my inclination is yes. It's our job as buyers to test the low in prices but seems that need to bid a bit higher to get into BWV.

View attachment 171327

Can you share the formula for how are you determining the Fair price?

 

[JHank44]

It's just standard annuity formula:

Where P is ($PP for Rent - $PP MFs) and then have to adjust for borrowed/banked and shared fees etc. I solve R to normalize for what is passing. This also ignores inflation but I assumed that "rent" and MFs both move together so should be minimal. As I said, this is a crude approximation but gives a better sense of "value" than just $pp.

 

[gr8tdame]

That is odd for your calculation on the $102 contract. My broker submitted a similar contract with more banked points and seller paying closing and mf fees at $99 pp.

Why would I offer more than the seller is asking?

 

[JHank44]

That is odd for your calculation on the $102 contract. My broker submitted a similar contract with more banked points and seller paying closing and mf fees at $99 pp.

Why would I offer more than the seller is asking?

I wasn't sure how many banked points you had on that one so I might have an error. It says you have 200/14 and 200/15 so 400 points available for free is what I assumed. If only 200 banked then knock $10 off (what I assume for free points).

I am not suggesting to pay more than what the seller is asking. Just know it might be taken.

Also, this is a crude estimate of value. I am calibrating to only partial information (what is posted on this board). My formula does a decent job of normalizing values of contract but what the passing value is still an unknown.