ROFR Thread April to June 2016 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[viper17d]

I'm not saying it's irrelevant at all. What I'm saying is that any results will be missing a major factor.

Point of interest- the bolded statement above that I quoted is actually not the case. Six months ago, it was the contracts that were going to be taken that went the full 30 days and the ones that passed did so very quickly.

Got it - very interesting how things change. My bad for misunderstanding! But yes, I work in field requiring data manipulation and its always a fools errand. Unless you understand the key drivers and get granular, trying to get down to causation or even strong correlation is near impossible. As you said, still fun to try and figure it out!

 

[ImagineerTHAT]

Nope, you guys all go ahead and mine the data to your heart's content! I would be super interested to see the results. If you look at the Fall 2015 ROFR threads, RobbW did a LOT of awesome work and we worked on posting a bunch of it on the thread for interests' sake. He doesn't seem to be active anymore, unfortunately (probably enjoying not worrying about ROFR!) but you can definitely see some real patterns emerge.

Then, two months later, those patterns go out the window. In the fall, for example, there was a period where they took a TON of OKW and BWV, and the average time for their decision overall was about 6-10 days. Now, it has normalized to 25-30 days as it was around this time last year.

I'm not saying it's irrelevant at all. What I'm saying is that any results will be missing a major factor.

Point of interest- the bolded statement above that I quoted is actually not the case. Six months ago, it was the contracts that were going to be taken that went the full 30 days and the ones that passed did so very quickly.

Hmmm...I never considered the unit number argument, and that is something that we will never know outside of keeping track of contracts that Disney bought back and trying to correlate the new deed from that contract to the previous owners unit number. I agree though pangyal....I don't think that ROFR patterns are going to be as straightforward as something like a credit score vs. being approved for a loan either. There are probably too many outside influences that we aren't aware of...I think that is pretty apparent in the way that 2 similar contracts in our variables can have 2 completely different outcomes.

 

[mustinjourney]

The small sample size was my initial worry, but I think I have found a solution to that problem. I have access to the Orange County Comptroller website. Each deed is posted there for all resales that have gone through and contracts that Disney has exercised their ROFR on.

I can easily search on a date range (last 12 months) for all notices where the grantor name is "DISNEY VACATION DEVELOPMENT INC". Those notices indicate that Disney has waived their ROFR. I can get all of the contract information from the processed deed. Then I search for deeds where "DISNEY VACATION DEVELOPMENT INC" is the grantee. When an individual sells back to DVD (not a foreclosure), it's a buyback from Disney. The are tricky though....they don't put any of the purchase information there...only "sum of $10 and other valuable considerations". There is a deed doc tax that is always based on a percentage of the total price. That can easily be extrapolated.

I may do this for one 12 month period just to see if anything is there pattern wise. Sounds a bit painful, but I'm interested if there is any method to the madness of the mouse

I did that for VGF -- the only problem is you can't tell how many points were remaining on the contract. It could be stripped or loaded or somewhere in between.

 

[mustinjourney]

Okay, here is the issue with the data mining for ROFR. One of the main things they look for is the Unit Number. If they are looking for a particular one, to be able to combine it with another existing contract to fulfill a direct buyer's waitlist, they will ROFR any contract with that unit number.

Essentially, the data we have does not include the arguable most important factor in their decisions. We can look at the other attributes of the contract to evaluate possible patterns, but there always be a unit number sized hole in our findings .

Make sense?

why would DVD care which unit? If they're selling it to someone that doesn't already own in that resort, then it would seem to me that the unit is irrelevant. I thought they tried to match your UY as much as possible, so if you already owned at VGF (DEC UY) but wanted to add a large chunk of cheaper points at SSR, they would do their best to get you a dec UY so that you still maintain one account with DVD. Am I missing something?

 

[mustinjourney]

Nope, you guys all go ahead and mine the data to your heart's content! I would be super interested to see the results. If you look at the Fall 2015 ROFR threads, RobbW did a LOT of awesome work and we worked on posting a bunch of it on the thread for interests' sake. He doesn't seem to be active anymore, unfortunately (probably enjoying not worrying about ROFR!) but you can definitely see some real patterns emerge.

Then, two months later, those patterns go out the window. In the fall, for example, there was a period where they took a TON of OKW and BWV, and the average time for their decision overall was about 6-10 days. Now, it has normalized to 25-30 days as it was around this time last year.

I'm not saying it's irrelevant at all. What I'm saying is that any results will be missing a major factor.

Point of interest- the bolded statement above that I quoted is actually not the case. Six months ago, it was the contracts that were going to be taken that went the full 30 days and the ones that passed did so very quickly.

it would be kind of funny if DVD analysts mined this thread/board and started switching things up just to mess with everyone.

 

[CMNJ]

why would DVD care which unit? If they're selling it to someone that doesn't already own in that resort, then it would seem to me that the unit is irrelevant. I thought they tried to match your UY as much as possible, so if you already owned at VGF (DEC UY) but wanted to add a large chunk of cheaper points at SSR, they would do their best to get you a dec UY so that you still maintain one account with DVD. Am I missing something?

Unit doesn't matter whether DVD has a buyer that owns at that already own that particular resort or a new DVC member. It matters because Disney cannot combine points from multiple units to use in one contract. So say they already have 100 points from unit 123 (from foreclosure, ROFR, etc) and a buyer waiting to buy 200 points. If 3 contracts come up for ROFR at the same time all for 100 points but only 1 of them is a part of unit 123 that is most likely the contract Disney will ROFR. They can they unload the 100 points they already have.

 

[FirstTimeDisneyVisit]

OMG!! Only 4 days for us and I am losing my mind... I check my email like 50 times a day, even though I know it's way too early. It's become an obsession.

Lmao !! I did the same thing !! it was tough but well worth it .. Good luck

 

[MouseOfCards]

Passed ROFR on 5/13!!! Waiting for Estopple.

ike3255---$72-$10,134-120-SSR-DEC-109/15-120/16-120/17, sent 4/19, passed 5/13

Great price! Congrats.

 

[MouseOfCards]

pepperandchips---$151-$12263-75-VGF-Aug-75/15, 150/16, 75/17- sent 5/15

High asking price but loaded contract. So excited!

Nice loaded contract!

 

[pangyal]

Got it - very interesting how things change. My bad for misunderstanding! But yes, I work in field requiring data manipulation and its always a fools errand. Unless you understand the key drivers and get granular, trying to get down to causation or even strong correlation is near impossible. As you said, still fun to try and figure it out!

I 100% agree and would love to see any and all outcomes if people are so inclined as to play around with the data! And of course, I am always more than happy to help if any of you brainiacs need any type of data I can help provide

 

[Ohana2011]

I work in predictive analytics and I keep thinking....should I import all of this data into R and run a regression analysis to determine if there are any indicators to ROFR'd contracts? Like total price, resort, no. banked points, who pays MFs, price per point, etc. You could also determine the probability of getting ROFR'd (only if there is some pattern to Disney taking a contract). At some point it could even tell you exactly what type of contract to buy to minimize your risk of getting ROFR'd. I suppose the problem is that we don't have all of the data here and it probably changes constantly.

I'm imagining someone laughing hysterically right now, in some ROFR office, with big prize wheel behind them. All our contracts get pasted onto the wheel... Round and round and round she goes, where she stops nobody knows! Hehe. I have faith it's quite a complex process that determines what gets ROFRd and I agree, I doubt we have all of the data.

 

[pangyal]

I always imagine there is a bottle of gin involved.

 

[mustinjourney]

even though we are waiting for ROFR on a VGF contract -- I can't help myself continually looking out for new deals.

This is really addictive. I told my wife I finally understand "antiquers."

 

[Tardisblue]

even though we are waiting for ROFR on a VGF contract -- I can't help myself continually looking out for new deals.

This is really addictive. I told my wife I finally understand "antiquers."

We're only 6 days into ROFR and after the 2nd day I told my wife how I can see this easily becoming a collector's hobby: "you know, 200 points is good, but 50-100 more wouldn't be bad..."

 

[Tardisblue]

Nice loaded contract!

What exactly constitutes a loaded contract? Is it any contract that has banked points from a previous year in addition to all the points in the current Use Year?

 

[DizBub]

We're only 6 days into ROFR and after the 2nd day I told my wife how I can see this becoming easily becoming a collector's hobby: "you know, 200 points is good, but 50-100 more wouldn't be bad..."

You nailed it. We started out with 210 points and thought that was a lot. Next we added 100 and thought we were set. Then added 160....surely we were done.

Now we are at day 15 for another 160. What can I say? Add-on-i-tis is real.

 

[ImagineerTHAT]

I'm imagining someone laughing hysterically right now, in some ROFR office, with big prize wheel behind them. All our contracts get pasted onto the wheel... Round and round and round she goes, where she stops nobody knows! Hehe. I have faith it's quite a complex process that determines what gets ROFRd and I agree, I doubt we have all of the data.

Haha...the ROFR wheel of fortune....except "Bankrupt" is "TAKE THAT CONTRACT!". I know it's a more systematic approach...they built something to make decisions for them based on certain criteria. The good news is that we are much more likely to pass than fail. If it were the other way around, the analysis would be much more important.

 

[Scott Eichenberger]

congrats! You win for the lowest accepted contract that I've seen this year!

So odd -- DVD took an SSR very similar to yours that was submitted one day earlier. It had a use year of August instead of December and was for 150 points instead of 120. That offer was for $82, 0/14, 14/15, 150/16, 150/17. Also typical in that the buyer paid CC and MF for the year.

When you factor in the value of the additional banked points you got (I use $11 since you could essential rent them out for that quite easily) vs. that contract, DVD paid about $15 more per point.

Maybe DVD has to match up UY first when trying to sell points for people on their waitlist?

I've come to believe that as long as it is above a set "floor" price, DVC only takes them when they need them... meaning they are sitting with a potential buyer and are looking at contracts available to grab during the 30 day window of ROFR to make an immediate sale. I don't believe someone is monitoring contracts and buying back to carry inventory. Could be wrong but I'm going with that theory.

 

[georged1979]

Passed ROFR, yah! Now I can say I'm a Boardwalk owner in addition to Saratoga Springs


georged1979---$105-$8,300-75-BWV-FEB- 0/15, 0/16, 75/17 – sent 4/28, passed 5/18

 

[Tardisblue]

Passed ROFR, yah! Now I can say I'm a Boardwalk owner in addition to Saratoga Springs


georged1979---$105-$8,300-75-BWV-FEB- 0/15, 0/16, 75/17 – sent 4/28, passed 5/18

20 days! Gives me hope. Congratulations.