Park attendance/performance down?? Iger vs. anecdotes??

[ChipnDale79]

From what I understand, Disney is trying to spread out the crowds. Instead of EVERYONE going in the summer, they're creating deals for people to go during the fall and winter months. Obviously it seems like attendance is down, but I think at the end of the year they're going to see around the same totals as far as attendance.

Maybe. This is just what I think and what has kind of been explained to me by my brother-in-law.

We just got free dining for July 4th week of 2017.....they are offering some good deals during busy times also.

 

[rteetz]

Lower park attendance, higher hotel occupancy, higher per person spending, lower costs, higher revenue as of July 2, 2016. I think anecdotal reports of lower attendance in the summer will prove to be accurate.

Disney Earnings report Q3 2016:

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One thing I found strange is the fact they have lower attendance but higher occupancy rates. Usually DVC occupancy is categorized on its own because its DVC so are people really staying at WDW hotels and not going to the parks?

 

[rteetz]

We just got free dining for July 4th week of 2017.....they are offering some good deals during busy times also.

Because people aren't booking like they have been in the past couple years. We are seeing a lot of discounts lately.

 

[Angel Ariel]

Disneyland did drive it during the 60th for sure but now that, that is over I want to see how things change if at all.

I doubt they'll change for the end of Quarter 4, since that's just a few days from now and the 60th just ended on Sept. 5th. Any impact won't be seen until Q1FY17.

October might be down (esp. compared to last year) with PTN and DL Forever being gone, but with the new holiday festival in DCA this year and a brand new holiday themed WOC starting in November, I think that will be a draw enough to locals as something new that there might not be as big a dip in attendance as there otherwise might have been. Whenever we find out what "select nights during the holiday season" means for PTN, that may draw people as well. Also, the return of the Winter Castle is happy news for many DL fans, which could also bring people back since it wasn't there last year.

 

[rteetz]

I doubt they'll change for the end of Quarter 4, since that's just a few days from now and the 60th just ended on Sept. 5th. Any impact won't be seen until Q1FY17.

October might be down (esp. compared to last year) with PTN and DL Forever being gone, but with the new holiday festival in DCA this year and a brand new holiday themed WOC starting in November, I think that will be a draw enough to locals as something new that there might not be as big a dip in attendance as there otherwise might have been. Whenever we find out what "select nights during the holiday season" means for PTN, that may draw people as well. Also, the return of the Winter Castle is happy news for many DL fans, which could also bring people back since it wasn't there last year.

Oh I agree I was just pointing out that the 60th was the driving force. I have even heard that DCA attendance numbers are under reported in the TEA/AECOM attendance reports. As for PTN it should run around Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas due to crowds otherwise It will likely sit. I also think you'll have a good amount of locals that go and "say goodbye" to ToT.

 

[ChipnDale79]

Because people aren't booking like they have been in the past couple years. We are seeing a lot of discounts lately.

Exactly, that's my point. Either one of two things is happening IMO, people are waiting until all the new stuff opens up, or people have decided to skip Disney because of all the price increases, zika, and all the things that happened in Orlando this summer.

We "skipped" this year. Although the wife and I drove down for one night last weekend for the sole purpose of booking a bounce back offer for next year. We did not buy theme park tickets for the one day we were there because of the insane cost of a 1 day park ticket.

 

[tlmadden73]

I think attendance will be down for a while.

Those three new "lands" that they have advertised that won't be around for a while. Pandora maybe in 2017 . .and the other two probably in 2019 or later. Which means a lot of people may just delay there trip until the new stuff is done.

Why go now with all the construction walls and one of the parks literally cut in half?

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

One thing I found strange is the fact they have lower attendance but higher occupancy rates. Usually DVC occupancy is categorized on its own because its DVC so are people really staying at WDW hotels and not going to the parks?

Yeah, that confused me a bit too. I can only think of a couple potential explanations:
1. People are taking more "rest" days or spending more time at Disney Springs (though it wasn't really in full force most of Q3 I think)
2. Maybe people are park hopping less. I seem to remember reading that they count attendance based on the number of times someone enters a park, though not sure on this.
3. More conferences?
4. Doing more non-Disney activities such as Universal

 

[grnflash]

2. Maybe people are park hopping less. I seem to remember reading that they count attendance based on the number of times someone enters a park, though not sure on this.

Disney only counts the first click for attendance. So whichever park you enter first is where your attendance is counted.

 

[rteetz]

Disney only counts the first click for attendance. So whichever park you enter first is where your attendance is counted.

True but we never see official Disney attendance numbers. We only have the estimates from the TEA.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Rosy picture and lying are different things. To say they see no slowdown if that isn't true would bite him later. Would not be smart.

"Healthy" is not a mathematical term.

You can if it's 100% an opinion statement

 

[lockedoutlogic]

True but we never see official Disney attendance numbers. We only have the estimates from the TEA.

Exactly...nobody knows and never will know.

Here's the playbook: attendance is "up" whenever money is up...no matter what. It makes the street happy. More money now...more money next quarter.

Attendance is "down" when money is down...and only then. Because it's an excuse to give the street. "Blame those "peasants" who Aren't coming"

 

[grnflash]

Disneyland did drive it during the 60th for sure but now that, that is over I want to see how things change if at all.

I think they are already reacting to post-60th DL. They just introduced the DCA only pass at Costco and opened up sales of the SoCal AP.

I think DL has an easier road ahead to stifle attendance decreases until new lands open up. It's just a more flexible beast due to the customer base.

Bringing back MSEP is a brilliant move. Whether PTN goes East or just goes down again after the holidays for reworks, you've already lined up a big draw that's gonna bring us all back in, even if it's just nostalgia. And you'll have plenty of goodies and trinkets emblazoned MSEP to slide into the 60th merch void.

The river reopening next summer will draw folks back too. Something that somewhat small will do it (we all came running in after the BTMRR refurb didn't we?) And then there's a refurbed Fantasmic opening on the river's heels. That's a big deal.

In any case, all these things are just a bridge to SWL attendance. All bets are off then, on both coasts.

 

[sheetz]

One thing I found strange is the fact they have lower attendance but higher occupancy rates.

This could simply mean a higher percentage of guests staying onsite due to discounts and/or Free Dining.

 

[rteetz]

This could simply mean a higher percentage of guests staying onsite due to discounts and/or Free Dining.

But those guests aren't going into the parks?

 

[sheetz]

But those guests aren't going into the parks?

They still are, but the number of overall guests would be down.

Here's a simple example with 2 scenarios:

Scenario 1: 40,000 total guests with 20,000 onsite + 20,000 offsite
Scenario 2: 38,000 total guests with 21,000 onsite + 17,000 offsite

Scenario 1 would have the largest attendance, but Scenario 2 would have the highest hotel occupancy.

 

[grnflash]

They still are, but the number of overall guests would be down.

Here's a simple example with 2 scenarios:

Scenario 1: 40,000 total guests with 20,000 onsite + 20,000 offsite
Scenario 2: 38,000 total guests with 21,000 onsite + 17,000 offsite

Scenario 1 would have the largest attendance, but Scenario 2 would have the highest hotel occupancy.

Hmmm. Perhaps Disney has finally priced some people out. Meaning off-siters who can't/won't make the jump to on-site lodging but feel that's vital to a good trip now (because of FP booking windows) are simply staying away.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Hmmm. Perhaps Disney has finally priced some people out. Meaning off-siters who can't/won't make the jump to on-site lodging but feel that's vital to a good trip now (because of FP booking windows) are simply staying away.

That...is exactly what it means

 

[dreiwhit]

Usually DVC occupancy is categorized on its own because its DVC so are people really staying at WDW hotels and not going to the parks?

FWIW, a former coworker and his family used to stay on Disney property, but not go to any of the Disney parks. They would go to Universal Studios, and other local attractions.

Also, I wonder if they are figuring conference attendees into their occupancy rates? I'm sure they are. The organization I used to work for held several annual conferences in hotels on Disney property over the years.

 

[rteetz]

FWIW, a former coworker and his family used to stay on Disney property, but not go to any of the Disney parks. They would go to Universal Studios, and other local attractions.

Also, I wonder if they are figuring conference attendees into their occupancy rates? I'm sure they are. The organization I used to work for held several annual conferences in hotels on Disney property over the years.

They would have to count conventions in the occupancy rates but were there that many more conferences to have occupancy up like that? I don't know and we likely never will.