Park attendance/performance down?? Iger vs. anecdotes??

[MakiraMarlena]

If Zika scares people enough, they won't come. Even if they offer full body mosquito nets to walk around in. So that's something they have to think about for the future I guess.

The problem with 9/11 is that nobody wanted to fly. WDW depends on guests from out of town. Many of them fly to Orlando. People stop flying, they won't come. Their income wasn't relevant. It took time and deep discounts they couldn't refuse to get 'em back onto planes again. Someday, the next thing will come along and they'll need to adjust accordingly, but there's plenty of air traffic right now.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

I remember what it was like after 9/11 for about 4 years....it was middle class folks that helped the parks recover from what was crisis level downturn complete with abandoned construction and shut down hotels.....the way they conduct themselves lately is IMO, disrespectful to those people like myself who kept coming when not alot of others were

It was everyone going back to travel and leisure spending that helped Disney parks and every other tourist business after 9/11. There isn't one "class" of folks responsible for that.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

If Zika scares people enough, they won't come. Even if they offer full body mosquito nets to walk around in. So that's something they have to think about for the future I guess.

Ok... but the point for now is that despite anecdotal reports to the contrary, he is saying there has not been an impact -- YET, to be sure.

 

[gmboy95]

It was everyone going back to travel and leisure spending that helped Disney parks and every other tourist business after 9/11. There isn't one "class" of folks responsible for that.

we will disagree on this....the folks in the middle had the most to lose when the economy went off a cliff then and in 08....its always those folks that going to Disney takes a bite out of the most....if I were running Disney (fat chance)....It would be that group of people i would bend over backwards to build brand loyalty. Rich folks take vacations no matter what the economy looks like, but they are not enough to float an entire organization. IMO, when it comes to the parks and DVC, Disney has tended to forget that

 

[MakiraMarlena]

Where are the anecdotal reports that say attendance is down due to Zika?

"I know a few people who cancelled their trip because they are afraid of Zika" doesn't equal "attendance is down because of Zika"

as for the rich/middle class thing...Disney charges what the market will bear. They charge what they do now because enough people will pay it (rich or not - not everybody who goes to WDW now is rich). People stop paying it for whatever reason, they will discount their prices. The question is going to be "will enough of the middle class who aren't responding now because of cost, be so annoyed at the way they feel Disney treated them when times were good, that they will continue to stay away and not respond to the discounts?" Nobody knows yet.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

we will disagree on this....the folks in the middle had the most to lose when the economy went off a cliff then and in 08....its always those folks that going to Disney takes a bite out of the most....if I were running Disney (fat chance)....It would be that group of people i would bend over backwards to build brand loyalty. Rich folks take vacations no matter what the economy looks like, but they are not enough to float an entire organization. IMO, when it comes to the parks and DVC, Disney has tended to forget that

I don't agree on this. Yes, we'll probably agree to disagree - always fine!

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Where are the anecdotal reports that say attendance is down due to Zika?

"I know a few people who cancelled their trip because they are afraid of Zika" doesn't equal "attendance is down because of Zika"

I'm not going to scour the internet now, but I have read some bloggers lump in SA economy and Zika as reasons to support their view that park attendance is down significantly. That's the kind of thing I'm referring to. They sometimes draw conclusions with scant more than anecdotal personal experience. I'm not fond of that, as a data-focused person myself. That's all.


ETA: here's an article that at least in part blames Zika, SA tourism, etc. for lower US theme park attendance in one quarter -- in the context of saying why it will "bounce back" -- there were things like this from blogs... http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/08/10/5-reasons-disney-world-attendance-will-bounce-back.aspx

 

[lugnut33]

I thought it was well know that right now Disneyland is driving profits and attendance in Disney's theme park business. There is no doubt that WDW attendance is off.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

[GALLERY=][/GALLERY]

I thought it was well know that right now Disneyland is driving profits and attendance in Disney's theme park business. There is no doubt that WDW attendance is off.

Yes, I think some drop in parks attendance (with INCREASE in profits) during some periods is confirmed. Overall for a year? Is that data in yet?

Articles like this are a mix of facts and conjecture, for instance. At least this one states that some of the evidence is "anecdotal"... (bolding mine)... this one cites Brazilian tourism down, Pulse and the alligator attack...

August 9, 2016, 3:11 PM · The Walt Disney Company confirmed that attendance at its US theme parks was down 4 percent in the three month period ending July 2, compared with the same period one year ago. Despite the attendance drop, theme park revenue increased 6 percent, to $4.3 billion, and operating income was up 8 percent, to $994 million, according to the company's most recent earnings report.

Disney didn't break down attendance at the Walt Disney World Resort in Florida versus the Disneyland Resort in California. However, anecdotal reports from fans suggest that theme park attendance across the board has been softer in the Orlando area this summer than it has in Southern California. A strong US dollar has made it more expensive for international tourists to visit the United States, which tends to hurts the Orlando parks more those in Southern California, which are more reliant upon local visitors.​

In addition, tourism from Brazil — another traditionally strong market sending visitors to Orlando — has dropped significantly due to economic and political turmoil in that country. The Pulse nightclub shooting in Orlando certainly didn't help inspire visits, nor did a fatal alligator attack at Disney World immediately after that.​

http://www.themeparkinsider.com/flume/201608/5207/

 

[Angel Ariel]

Well, that is important. Those profits rolling in is what allows Star Wars land, Avatarland, etc to be built... however slowly...

Of course...but if performance = profits, then - as others pointed out - there may not be a "slowdown" in profit even with less attendance as the price increases make up for the less attendance (at the moment). IIRC, the last earnings call they did specifically say that WDW attendance was down slightly (while DLR's was up and offset WDW), but revenue was still increasing due to the price increases.

 

[Angel Ariel]

Ok... but the point for now is that despite anecdotal reports to the contrary, he is saying there has not been an impact -- YET, to be sure.

If Disney wasn't seeing an impact I highly doubt they'd have spent the money on the mosquito repellant and such that they are. Clearly they're aware of Zika being an issue and are trying to get in front of it by providing the repellent and hoping that will be enough for people to feel like it's not an issue.

 

[Angel Ariel]

Ah, found the source:

Overall, attendance at Disney’s domestic parks was flat.

The increased attendance at Disneyland and Disney California Adventure was offset by fewer people visiting Walt Disney World, Disney reported. Disney does not release attendance numbers.

Source

Sure, this was back a few months. But clearly WDW attendance was down even before the tragic events in June and Zika. Disney reported so themselves.

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

Lower park attendance, higher hotel occupancy, higher per person spending, lower costs, higher revenue as of July 2, 2016. I think anecdotal reports of lower attendance in the summer will prove to be accurate.

Disney Earnings report Q3 2016:

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Lower park attendance, higher hotel occupancy, higher per person spending, lower costs, higher revenue as of July 2, 2016. I think anecdotal reports of lower attendance in the summer will prove to be accurate.

Disney Earnings report Q3 2016:

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Thanks for posting! I haven't pulled up their earnings reports in quite some time and didn't want to mess with it on my phone now.

Will be interesting to see over time if attendance is down for the whole year.

• There have been complaints for ages now about there being no such thing as a "slow" time in WDW anymore, as compared to years ago.
• Tickets now structured to spread crowds out.

And in the end, they might just arrive at a different equilibrium wrt attandance and per customer spend that keeps profits up.

Wonder if Iger's comments suggest that the dip in attendance is not expected to continue, or if he really was just referring to profits when saying there was "no slowdown"...?

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

If Disney wasn't seeing an impact I highly doubt they'd have spent the money on the mosquito repellant and such that they are. Clearly they're aware of Zika being an issue and are trying to get in front of it by providing the repellent and hoping that will be enough for people to feel like it's not an issue.

Disagree. That could be preventative.

Small price to publicize in yet another way that "YOU'RE SAFE IN WDW!!"

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Of course...but if performance = profits, then - as others pointed out - there may not be a "slowdown" in profit even with less attendance as the price increases make up for the less attendance (at the moment).

Yes -- I've agreed with this from the very beginning.

 

[SureAsLiz]

If Disney wasn't seeing an impact I highly doubt they'd have spent the money on the mosquito repellant and such that they are. Clearly they're aware of Zika being an issue and are trying to get in front of it by providing the repellent and hoping that will be enough for people to feel like it's not an issue.

This is a city-wide initiative. Universal and Sea World are also providing mosquito repellent

 

[Angel Ariel]

Disagree. That could be preventative.

Small price to publicize in yet another way that "YOU'RE SAFE IN WDW!!"

I believe I mentioned preventative as well (see bolded)

If Disney wasn't seeing an impact I highly doubt they'd have spent the money on the mosquito repellant and such that they are. Clearly they're aware of Zika being an issue and are trying to get in front of it by providing the repellent and hoping that will be enough for people to feel like it's not an issue.

My point was that I doubt that they would do it preventatively if they weren't concerned about Zika impacting their attendance. And that goes for Universal and Sea World as well. Perhaps they haven't seen that yet, in that part you may be right, but I still don't think any of the parks would undertake this if they weren't very seriously concerned about the impact Zika could have.

 

[Angel Ariel]

Lower park attendance, higher hotel occupancy, higher per person spending, lower costs, higher revenue as of July 2, 2016. I think anecdotal reports of lower attendance in the summer will prove to be accurate.

Disney Earnings report Q3 2016:

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I think it's pretty safe to say that there's more than just anecdotes behind the claims of lower attendance at WDW. Whether that continues the entire year will be interesting, but it's clearly the case through this quoted report at least.

 

[rteetz]

I thought it was well know that right now Disneyland is driving profits and attendance in Disney's theme park business. There is no doubt that WDW attendance is off.

Disneyland did drive it during the 60th for sure but now that, that is over I want to see how things change if at all.