ALL RESORTS BOOKED FROM OCT to JAN

[Deb & Bill]

Tim, I think we agree other than which side of the fence we fall to. Certainly it will take years before we, or DVC, has enough information to make any changes and even if they did, they likely won't during active sales. A reallocation will prove the issue, lack of one won't necessarily prove the opposite. DVC will have a lot of information though even now given their pooled stats. In reality the Bungalows are a specialty item, basically a 2 BR at a high end 3 BR price. My prediction is they will be a failure at the current level if we define success as a demand such that they book up at a similar speed to other 2 BR villas, which is the best comparison IMO. In reality they will likely lag behind the 2 BR by a long shot and the 3 BR as well. My prediction.

Agree, they are more in alignment with the Treehouse Villas which do not require nearly as many points.

 

[ziravan]

Retracted. My point wasn't.

 

[Meandnevaeh]

IMO you couldn't find anywhere in any of the sales materials (video or written) when it states or advises : "DVC memberships are only for people who can plan 7 months in advance". Additionally, no sales rep would ever make this claim.
So, my issues with THEM is that basically, I'm paying monthly fees for something I cant use and has gotten even more difficult to use as time has passed.

You can use your points, you just have to book earlier, it's not Disneys fault that you can not get a room on short notice, it dies state based on availability. There are times of the year that are not currently booked-you just have to look farther out than the next few months. And you need to be flexible.

 

[maloned]

I remember when you could book a room for the coming weekend. Now it's nearly impossible to book at a non-home resort the day the 7-month window opens. I've been on a waitlist for the entire 7 months at two different reports and I check online daily at all the other resorts.

 

[freediverdude]

My argument that they probably won't reallocate is that taking enough points off the bungalows to really make a difference would raise the studio points to be too high. The studios are already priced at the GF level, they can't really raise those more than a point or so without people asking what's going on. I think they're stuck with the current point structure, even if they end up having to give a lot of bungalows to CRO to sell for cash.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

My argument that they probably won't reallocate is that taking enough points off the bungalows to really make a difference would raise the studio points to be too high. The studios are already priced at the GF level, they can't really raise those more than a point or so without people asking what's going on. I think they're stuck with the current point structure, even if they end up having to give a lot of bungalows to CRO to sell for cash.

You say sell for cash like it's a bug. I think it was the plan.

 

[Sammie]

I remember when you could book a room for the coming weekend. Now it's nearly impossible to book at a non-home resort the day the 7-month window opens. I've been on a waitlist for the entire 7 months at two different reports and I check online daily at all the other resorts.

Not always. Depends on the size of the room you want, when and where.

 

[supersnoop]

My argument that they probably won't reallocate is that taking enough points off the bungalows to really make a difference would raise the studio points to be too high. The studios are already priced at the GF level, they can't really raise those more than a point or so without people asking what's going on. I think they're stuck with the current point structure, even if they end up having to give a lot of bungalows to CRO to sell for cash.

Raising studios by one point would reduce bungalow by 16. If the demand ends up being skewed enough, they'll do it. They probably need to raise the points on VGF studios with the demand we're seeing there, too.

 

[ziravan]

We had a detained discussion about this in the thread below. IF DVC were to reallocate Poly, there are several changes to consider: Parking lot view, bungalow 1st floor views, etc.

Below was me playing with numbers about how an allocation could go.

http://www.disboards.com/threads/did-dvc-create-points-at-pvb.3462822/page-2

I was playing with numbers for fun and IF they decided to do a major reallocation.

Maximum Reallocation Amount (MRA)
(MRA x #Rooms x 365 nights = total points per category. All cats equal total number of points at resort).

Assume 20 Bungalows, 48 Lake Views, 38 Standard/Parking Lot Views, 274 Garden/Pool views:

Bungalows 20 rooms - Lower MRA 25 points to 122 from previous 147. Total Bungalow Points would be 890,600 (currently 1,073,100) and that would reduce Bungalow points from 26.4% of total points to 21.9% of total points.

Lake View 48 rooms - Raise MRA 1 point to 27 (from 26). Total Lake View points would be 473,040 (currently 683,280) and that would reduce Lake View points from 16.8% of total points to 11.6% of total points.

Garden/Pool 274 rooms - Raise MRA 2 points to 24 (from 22). Total Garden/Pool View points would be 2,400,240 (currently 2,312,640) and that would increase Garden/Pool (formerly Standard) from 56.8% of total points to 59% of total points.

Standard (Parking Lot) 38 rooms - New category at MRA of 22 (no change from how they were previously classified). Total Standard points would be 305,140 and that would be 7.5% of total points.

Total points for resort would be exactly as many as now: 4,069,020.

1. That would be a significant decrease in Bungalow points.
2. It would be a steep increase for standard rooms at 2 points per night average.
3. Parking lot views would be in high demand. Lake View to a lessor degree

I just wanted to see what a reallocation would look like given the OP's hypothesis.

 

[Lakegirl]

I remember when you could book a room for the coming weekend. Now it's nearly impossible to book at a non-home resort the day the 7-month window opens. I've been on a waitlist for the entire 7 months at two different reports and I check online daily at all the other resorts.

What time of year?

 

[tjkraz]

You say sell for cash like it's a bug. I think it was the plan.

You say it was the plan as if there are people lined up around the block waiting to pay Disney $2000+ per night for a room that sleeps 8 guests.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

You say it was the plan as if there are people lined up around the block waiting to pay Disney $2000+ per night for a room that sleeps 8 guests.

Eh, quite possibly. They manage to book King Kamehameha year-round, and the suites at Contemporary and Beach Club, after all, and those aren't exactly budget accommodations that sleep the entire horn section of a Texas marching band.

 

[tjkraz]

Eh, quite possibly. They manage to book King Kamehameha year-round, and the suites at Contemporary and Beach Club, after all, and those aren't exactly budget accommodations that sleep the entire horn section of a Texas marching band.

So the theory here is that the Bungalows were deliberately overpriced, thus unappealing to DVC members...yet expensive Bungalows and suites are a smashing success with cash guests. Am I getting that right?

 

[ziravan]

So the theory here is that the Bungalows were deliberately overpriced, thus unappealing to DVC members...yet expensive Bungalows and suites are a smashing success with cash guests. Am I getting that right?

Dial that back about 15% and yes.

Deliberately overpriced to create more points at Poly without scaring off buyers at the already very high points per night for studios. This way, the real price per night for studios will only be seen after sellout when reallocation occurs.

And all cash sales are part of the gravy train. If DVC can sell those rooms for $2K list (1.6K actual), then awesome possum.

If not, after reallocation they'll sell them for 1.6K list (1.3K actual). Either way, very few Poly owners (or any DVC owner for that matter) will have enough points to do more than sample a night or two in the bungalows. Deliberate or not, they are too expensive for most points owners.

And the upkeep bill for all those cash nights will still be sent to owners.

Who do you think is going to pay for the new A/C systems in the bungalows? (I'm not saying it shouldn't come out of MFs; I'm saying great deal for the entity getting cash for breakage - no pun intended -, etc, especially since they designed the rules.)

It's not quite as either/or as you suggest, but, no matter who is in those rooms, Disney wins.

And I'm fine with the mouse winning.

But. If (and that's a big if) the bungalows are deliberately overpriced to create more initial points and the studios (where everybody is buying points to stay) end up being increased in point price after sellout, then that's a slight of hand that slides to the unethical. Time will tell.

I say the above as a Poly owner and I missed the initial owner's discount window because I was still researching. We were having these same discussions way back then, too. This is why I bought a guaranteed week: reallocation won't affect me if I use the week. So buyer beware, and I believe I did. But then. I'm not buying a stretched week at Poly studios while high on pixie dust only to find out later that my already stretch to book studios at Poly will be stretched even more.

 

[ziravan]

The MRA (maximum reallocation amount) on bungalows is 147. If DVC were to reallocate studio MRAs 2 points higher, it'd shave 38 points from the MRA on bungalows, down to a much more reasonable 109.

If the bungalows were originally 109 with studio MRAs being the same, that would have shaved 277,400 points off of Poly.

At $160/point, were talking $44.38 million dollars. So we are talking 10s of millions of dollars here.

The question is: how easy would it have been to sell those studio points if the rooms were originally valued 2 points per night higher than VGF?

Did DVC hide the ultimate points per night at the studios in the points of the bungalows? It just seems like a very high price for 8 people. Time will tell.

I hope not. I want to believe that Disney wouldn't do that. I do. And I'd be opposed to a reallocation. But. I bought points at Poly that are specifically shielded from future reallocations. This is why. My week is guaranteed no matter how many points it costs.

 

[ziravan]

Final thought on this:

I don't think anybody at corporate Disney decided, let's just screw the studio point buyers over later.

No.

It's more like Flip or Flop if you've ever seen that show. They very aggressively price homes with the idea that they can always go down in price but not up.

So. I think it's quite possible that somebody decided, "Let's be aggressive with bungalow pricing and if we have to, we can fix it later."

That's fine...until you consider that if it needs to be fixed later, it'll be on the backs of studios.

TJKRAJ doesn't think it's a problem, and I hope he's right. I really do.

If it does end up being reallocated, well then whoa, Nellie!

That'll be quite a discussion.

 

[PatMcDuck]

If DVC no longer meets your needs and expectations, you should sell it. There are many vacation opportunities in the US. Not being sarcastic, being sincere, no one should keep DVC if it does not work for them. Life is too short!

 

[Dean]

Final thought on this:

I don't think anybody at corporate Disney decided, let's just screw the studio point buyers over later.

No.

It's more like Flip or Flop if you've ever seen that show. They very aggressively price homes with the idea that they can always go down in price but not up.

So. I think it's quite possible that somebody decided, "Let's be aggressive with bungalow pricing and if we have to, we can fix it later."

That's fine...until you consider that if it needs to be fixed later, it'll be on the backs of studios.

TJKRAJ doesn't think it's a problem, and I hope he's right. I really do.

If it does end up being reallocated, well then whoa, Nellie!

That'll be quite a discussion.

I tend to agree they don't do these things with the purpose of putting one over on the members/buyers but I do think they are overly optimistic at times. But some would disagree, I know there are those that believe DVD/DVC purposefully did exactly that with THV in order to sell them. Had they made THV their own resort, as I believe they should have, they could not have made this adjustment as they did.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I think Disney knew the patterns of point purchase at VGF when pricing Poly, and knew the distribution of large points purchases. Whether they were optimistic that people would swoon (and pony up a LOT more money for points) over the Poly + bungalows, or they saw the opportunity to sell that many more small contracts and trade out the bungalows as breakage is debatable.

 

[Dean]

I think Disney knew the patterns of point purchase at VGF when pricing Poly, and knew the distribution of large points purchases. Whether they were optimistic that people would swoon (and pony up a LOT more money for points) over the Poly + bungalows, or they saw the opportunity to sell that many more small contracts and trade out the bungalows as breakage is debatable.

If I thought they'd done so purposefully, I would judge them to be dishonest and would chose not to play in their sandbox as a member. That's different than "let's hope if works but if not, we can always reallocate".