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ALL RESORTS BOOKED FROM OCT to JAN

Had they made THV their own resort, as I believe they should have, they could not have made this adjustment as they did.

I think THV as a standalone resort would have been a very hard sell. Buying into a place that only provided 3BR accommodations and very little amenities close by? If that DVC management even gave it consideration I think they would have dismissed it based only on that thought. PVB shows signs that having essentially one type of room - even if it's the cheapest type - isn't as appealing is a resort with options for the home resort owner.
 
If I thought they'd done so purposefully, I would judge them to be dishonest and would chose not to play in their sandbox as a member. That's different than "let's hope if works but if not, we can always reallocate".
At the end of the day, they're a timeshare operated by a public company who spend a lot of time worrying about current balance sheets. So I have a tendency to cynicism.
 
I think THV as a standalone resort would have been a very hard sell. Buying into a place that only provided 3BR accommodations and very little amenities close by? If that DVC management even gave it consideration I think they would have dismissed it based only on that thought. PVB shows signs that having essentially one type of room - even if it's the cheapest type - isn't as appealing is a resort with options for the home resort owner.
They it should not have been built IMO. But they sold SSR, they could have sold THV as well.

At the end of the day, they're a timeshare operated by a public company who spend a lot of time worrying about current balance sheets. So I have a tendency to cynicism.
I'm not an optimist or a pessimist, I'm a realist. But there has to be a certain amount of trust in the timeshare for me to be willing to participate, this would have put them over that line.
 
I will say that it's a great time to sell right now. We recently sold two of our BWV contracts and more than doubled our money.
 


We would book the week of.. for the coming weekend, in the summer of 2006 through 2010. I just checked the points books for those years and the weekend points weren't that much higher.

Summer is very different than fall, but that was prior to the point reallocation. Lots of owners apparently thought the weekends were not worth the premium vs weekdays. We generally go for 6-7 days so overall it did not matter but if people were only going for 4-5 they went during the week.
 
If I thought they'd done so purposefully, I would judge them to be dishonest and would chose not to play in their sandbox as a member. That's different than "let's hope if works but if not, we can always reallocate".

Perhaps they sat around in a meeting a said "Lets build high point cost bungalows, they'll look super cool and unique, they'll give us lots of points to sell and if most POLY owners can't afford to stay there we can always rent them for cash and make a lot of money that way". A typical heads DVC wins, tails owners lose. Is that smart business, slightly dishonest or a little of both.

Got me thinking though, when DVC designs a resort and sells it are they building the type of rooms that they expect the buyers of that resort want to stay at or are they also considering the type of rooms that people in the entire system will want to trade into.
 


Perhaps they sat around in a meeting a said "Lets build high point cost bungalows, they'll look super cool and unique, they'll give us lots of points to sell and if most POLY owners can't afford to stay there we can always rent them for cash and make a lot of money that way". A typical heads DVC wins, tails owners lose. Is that smart business, slightly dishonest or a little of both.

Got me thinking though, when DVC designs a resort and sells it are they building the type of rooms that they expect the buyers of that resort want to stay at or are they also considering the type of rooms that people in the entire system will want to trade into.
DVC should only be building units that will sell to new owners.
If the new units are attractive to new owners, then they will appeal to some to many existing owners.

Appealing to all existing owners is impossible. I.e., there are some owners of resorts within walking distance to a park, that will never, ever want to stay at a non-walking distance resort.
That doesn't mean DVC should not add any non-walking distance resorts.
 
There actually are warnings concerning availability of rooms in the public offering documents that were provided by Disney at the time of sale. In the declarations, Disney explains how the point system means any member can reserve any room at any time of the year and then warns that all reservations are on a first come first served basis and there is no guarantee you will be able to get the reservation you want, and you are encouraged to reserve as far in advance as allowed to be able to get your choice of vacation homes and times. See, e.g., section 4.2.b in the declarations.

While I do not disagree with a thing you said, I do somewhat agree with the OP. The salespeople DEFINITELY understate it. We did our research before we purchased (spent 5 years waffling on it before I made the walk). We are happy with our purchase. However, I did ask the salesperson this question when we purchased in 2010, and his answer to me was along the lines of "At 7 months out, you may not get your room, but you should always be able to find a room. Even if you want to come in a month, you should usually be able to find a room at some resort as long as you are not picky".

the reality has been far different. It actually was true for a short time back when we purchased. However, I have noticed in recent years it's been near impossible unless you are 10 months out in your home resort to find a room. forget 7 months, you need to be booking at midnight. You can't get ANY rooms ANYWHERE.

Do I blame Disney? No. Did they do anything illegal, underhanded or unethical? No. Could the salespeople be more upfront and honest? Sure. Would they? No - cause they are after a sale, not a happy customer.

So there is some truth behind the OP's frustration. My wife and I are going in November. We booked 6 months out. We found one resort - just one. Not our first choice of weeks or hotels, but we did find an option as long as we were flexible. I would like to get back to where I can plan 3 months out as long as I am willing to be flexible on the dates (I want to go for 5 days, but I don't care about WHICH 5 days). Problem is that lately there are only 1 or 2 days; and I can't justify flying for 1 day. Will that happen? I don't know. However, I would like it cause sometimes you are just having a hard year and you need a little Disney.
 
I did ask the salesperson this question when we purchased in 2010, and his answer to me was along the lines of "At 7 months out, you may not get your room, but you should always be able to find a room. Even if you want to come in a month, you should usually be able to find a room at some resort as long as you are not picky".

That was likely true in 2010. It's only in the past few years that I haven't even seen SSR available for one month ahead. SSR used to be constantly available. It's possible Disney Springs may cause some increase in demand.
 
Perhaps they sat around in a meeting a said "Lets build high point cost bungalows, they'll look super cool and unique, they'll give us lots of points to sell and if most POLY owners can't afford to stay there we can always rent them for cash and make a lot of money that way". A typical heads DVC wins, tails owners lose. Is that smart business, slightly dishonest or a little of both.

The main problem I have with this discussion is that it's entirely based upon the dual concepts that:

1) The bungalows are overpriced and out of 200-300K DVC owners, there aren't 20 families per night who are willing to pay the published costs, AND...

2) Disney has no shortage of cash guests who are ready and willing to pay $2000-3000 per night to stay in these rooms.

Both of those things can be true, however evidence is sorely lacking. Inquiries to the online booking system show frequent sell-outs for the bungalows. Even on nights when availability remains, the trends are similar to other resort Grand Villas which--by my recollection--have never come under scrutiny.

Conclusions are being drawn on the basis of "there were no lights on the in the bungalows, therefore they were empty" and subjective beliefs along the lines of "*I* think they are too expensive, therefore other members must share my opinion."

Admittedly the bungalows are not as good a value as a Grand Villa, but that alone does not mean that they are priced too high to generate member demand. At any resort, you can get a One Bedroom plus a Two Bedroom Villa to sleep 12+ guests for less than the cost of a Grand Villa. But people still book Grand Villas. Two Studios is always less than the cost of a single Two Bedroom, while sleeping the same or more guests.

The structure, location and amenities (pool, deck) of the bungalows are totally unique and the rooms are in short supply. Out of several hundred thousand owners, it doesn't take much interest to fill those 20 rooms.
 
Perhaps they sat around in a meeting a said "Lets build high point cost bungalows, they'll look super cool and unique, they'll give us lots of points to sell and if most POLY owners can't afford to stay there we can always rent them for cash and make a lot of money that way". A typical heads DVC wins, tails owners lose. Is that smart business, slightly dishonest or a little of both.

Got me thinking though, when DVC designs a resort and sells it are they building the type of rooms that they expect the buyers of that resort want to stay at or are they also considering the type of rooms that people in the entire system will want to trade into.
I doubt they purposefully built it with the idea of changing the points later though I wouldn't be surprised if they discussed the "What if" scenario which is a big difference in my book even if the outcome is the same.

DVC should only be building units that will sell to new owners.
If the new units are attractive to new owners, then they will appeal to some to many existing owners.

Appealing to all existing owners is impossible. I.e., there are some owners of resorts within walking distance to a park, that will never, ever want to stay at a non-walking distance resort.
That doesn't mean DVC should not add any non-walking distance resorts.
All they have to do is create resorts they can sell. They sold SSR with a bazillion points and a less desirable resort than than the rest at WDW (though it's a fine resort in it's own right). And they will use the other resorts to sell the new ones as they should.

While I do not disagree with a thing you said, I do somewhat agree with the OP. The salespeople DEFINITELY understate it. We did our research before we purchased (spent 5 years waffling on it before I made the walk). We are happy with our purchase. However, I did ask the salesperson this question when we purchased in 2010, and his answer to me was along the lines of "At 7 months out, you may not get your room, but you should always be able to find a room. Even if you want to come in a month, you should usually be able to find a room at some resort as long as you are not picky".

the reality has been far different. It actually was true for a short time back when we purchased. However, I have noticed in recent years it's been near impossible unless you are 10 months out in your home resort to find a room. forget 7 months, you need to be booking at midnight. You can't get ANY rooms ANYWHERE.

Do I blame Disney? No. Did they do anything illegal, underhanded or unethical? No. Could the salespeople be more upfront and honest? Sure. Would they? No - cause they are after a sale, not a happy customer.

So there is some truth behind the OP's frustration. My wife and I are going in November. We booked 6 months out. We found one resort - just one. Not our first choice of weeks or hotels, but we did find an option as long as we were flexible. I would like to get back to where I can plan 3 months out as long as I am willing to be flexible on the dates (I want to go for 5 days, but I don't care about WHICH 5 days). Problem is that lately there are only 1 or 2 days; and I can't justify flying for 1 day. Will that happen? I don't know. However, I would like it cause sometimes you are just having a hard year and you need a little Disney.
IMO it's irrelevant what they said since the POS and common sense says otherwise. But it likely was true at that time. Plus the reality is that most of the guides don't have a good feel for the actual workings of the system, just how it's supposed to work.
 
The main problem I have with this discussion is that it's entirely based upon the dual concepts that:

1) The bungalows are overpriced and out of 200-300K DVC owners, there aren't 20 families per night who are willing to pay the published costs, AND...

2) Disney has no shortage of cash guests who are ready and willing to pay $2000-3000 per night to stay in these rooms.

Both of those things can be true, however evidence is sorely lacking. Inquiries to the online booking system show frequent sell-outs for the bungalows. Even on nights when availability remains, the trends are similar to other resort Grand Villas which--by my recollection--have never come under scrutiny.

Conclusions are being drawn on the basis of "there were no lights on the in the bungalows, therefore they were empty" and subjective beliefs along the lines of "*I* think they are too expensive, therefore other members must share my opinion."

Admittedly the bungalows are not as good a value as a Grand Villa, but that alone does not mean that they are priced too high to generate member demand. At any resort, you can get a One Bedroom plus a Two Bedroom Villa to sleep 12+ guests for less than the cost of a Grand Villa. But people still book Grand Villas. Two Studios is always less than the cost of a single Two Bedroom, while sleeping the same or more guests.

The structure, location and amenities (pool, deck) of the bungalows are totally unique and the rooms are in short supply. Out of several hundred thousand owners, it doesn't take much interest to fill those 20 rooms.
20 rooms out of 300k owners isn't fair to the overwhelming number of Poly owners only buying enough points for studios.

At every other DVC resort, you have 1 and 2 brs as additional buffers.

Poly, when sold out, will be approaching 25% oversold on studios. What this functionally means is that even if 25% of Poly owners trade out each year, the studios will still be full of only Poly owners. And since we know the booking year isn't symmetrical and skews to Fall Frenzy, what this means is Poly will have many more owners each year trying to book studios at 11 months from mid-Sep to mid-Jan than studios.

It also means that, except for DVC low season, bungalows are going to be the prime trade at 7 months and breakage rooms. Those studios will simply be oversold.

I hear what you're saying, but the high cost in points for bungalows combined with no other options except studios creates a very large imbalance that DVC will most likely have to rebalance at some point, if not to reduce the price of bungalows in its own right, than to even out what will be high demand for studios.

Intentional or not, DVC almost certainly had enough data to predict this future. We've been discussing it since the point chart was first published.
 
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20 rooms out of 300k owners isn't fair to the overwhelming number of Poly owners only buying enough points for studios.

At every other DVC resort, you have 1 and 2 brs as additional buffers.

Poly, when sold out, will be approaching 25% oversold on studios. What this functionally means is that even if 25% of Poly owners trade out each year, the studios will still be full of only Poly owners. And since we know the booking year isn't symmetrical and skews to Fall Frenzy, what this means is Poly will have many more owners each year trying to book studios at 11 months from mid-Sep to mid-Jan than studios.

It also means that, except for DVC low season, bungalows are going to be the prime trade at 7 months and breakage rooms. Those studios will simply be oversold.

Hi, I'm DVC. Have we met?

There are inequities throughout the system. Every single day, dozens of Aulani owners are using points for WDW, SSR owners are using points for Hilton Head, BLT owners are going to Aulani, Poly owners are staying in 1B and 2B villas elsewhere, VGF owners are fighting over studios...and on, and on, and on.

Trying to reconcile point usage at a single resort is a fool's errand.
 
Hi, I'm DVC. Have we met?

There are inequities throughout the system. Every single day, dozens of Aulani owners are using points for WDW, SSR owners are using points for Hilton Head, BLT owners are going to Aulani, Poly owners are staying in 1B and 2B villas elsewhere, VGF owners are fighting over studios...and on, and on, and on.

Trying to reconcile point usage at a single resort is a fool's errand.
And so we've come full circle to the title of the thread. What you say worked just fine even five years ago when something was normally open at the 7 month window, somewhere, most of the time.

But. Combine the imbalances of Fall Frenzy with the imbalances of Bungalows vs Studios with the lack of alternatives at Poly with the general lack of alternatives lately full stop at 7 months and you have a perfect storm.

This ain't your father's DVC.

This perfect storm will lead to Poly studio point holders scrambling to book Poly at 11 months during Fall Frenzy, if for no other reason than a lack of appealing alternatives. That 1BR at BLT in Nov sounds mighty appealing, but what are the chances of a 150 point Poly owner securing it at 7 months?

Something has to give. DVC will have to correct the imbalances somewhere. Fall Frenzy. Bungalow vs studio. The smoking gun question, such as it always is, is what did they know and when did they know it.
 
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But. Combine the imbalances of Fall Frenzy with the imbalances of Bungalows vs Studios with the lack of alternatives at Poly with the general lack of alternatives lately full stop at 7 months and you have a perfect storm.

The bungalows have been completely booked for fall dates for months now, as well. If anything, it speaks to the ongoing imbalances in the calendar. Early December is even worse, when many resorts/room sizes are booked within hours of the the 11 month window opening. That's been the case for more than a decade with no indication that DVC is looking to correct.
 
The bungalows have been completely booked for fall dates for months now, as well. If anything, it speaks to the ongoing imbalances in the calendar. Early December is even worse, when many resorts/room sizes are booked within hours of the the 11 month window opening. That's been the case for more than a decade with no indication that DVC is looking to correct.
Yes.

And look, I'm not trying to be argumentative with you. I respect your opinion and work educating people about DVC.

The bigger issue than bungalows being full on points vs breakage is the difference in point size between studios and bungalows with nothing to mediate it.

I agree with the above that Fall Frenzy is as bad or worse than the Poly mismatch. But they're additive to each other. Fall Frenzy and the inability to book out at 7 months are going to create pressure on Poly studios.

So, whether the pressure is towards making Bungalows cheaper or putting a necessary premium on studios that are overbooked, the result is the same: with only 2 room categories, reallocating one almost certainly means reallocating both.

It's not just the bungalows that are going to be an issue. I strongly suspect that booking pressures at Poly will run both ways.

No other resort has such a mismatch without an 11 month buffer. The more difficult 7 month booking becomes, the more of a problem that is.

Honestly, at least where Poly is concerned, the plans supposedly were to build another building that would have presumably housed more room variety. It could simply be that changing those plans on the fly created an unintended bind for Poly. I submit it's possible DVC just got caught with a reality different than planning.
 
And so we've come full circle to the title of the thread. What you say worked just fine even five years ago when something was normally open at the 7 month window, somewhere, most of the time.

But. Combine the imbalances of Fall Frenzy with the imbalances of Bungalows vs Studios with the lack of alternatives at Poly with the general lack of alternatives lately full stop at 7 months and you have a perfect storm.

This ain't your father's DVC.

This perfect storm will lead to Poly studio point holders scrambling to book Poly at 11 months during Fall Frenzy, if for no other reason than a lack of appealing alternatives. That 1BR at BLT in Nov sounds mighty appealing, but what are the chances of a 150 point Poly owner securing it at 7 months?

Something has to give. DVC will have to correct the imbalances somewhere. Fall Frenzy. Bungalow vs studio. The smoking gun question, such as it always is, is what did they know and when did they know it.
And thus comes to the point I've made a number of times over the years and one I think many (if not most) DVC owners don't know emotionally even if they do know it intellectually. When we buy in we're not buying DVC in general, we're buying a specific resort with rules, competition for home resort reservations and exchange rules. Reservations at non home resorts are technically, and in reality, an exchange. Often you see recommendations to buy where you want to stay but even then there are no guarantees on availability even day one 11 months out. Thus is the nature of a points system. It has changed over the years, it had to, and it will continue to evolve. But those that are informed AND put in the planning and effort will generally be rewarded even where others fail. One truly needs to consider the variables including the worst case scenarios when buying in even up to the possibility that the parks could close some day. Another point I've made over many years is that DVC has enjoyed unprecedented availability after the reservation window has opened, FAR more so than other similar timeshare systems. Thus it is just moving more to where it really should have been to start with IMO.
 
Honestly, at least where Poly is concerned, the plans supposedly were to build another building that would have presumably housed more room variety. It could simply be that changing those plans on the fly created an unintended bind for Poly. I submit it's possible DVC just got caught with a reality different than planning.
i wanted to address this point independently. IMO it really doesn't matter though we can throw around guesses as to whey they did it and what they truly intended. They did it the way they did and they are selling the points. In reality, only those that buy at the Poly have a true vote and they voted when they bought or when they sell. The rest of us can chose to stay there or not based not the applicable factors. I've said before that it seems strange to me to have such a skewed setup but it doesn't hurt me or other owners and system options that aren't too far off (lower) in demand are always good. IMO they missed a tremendous opportunity to create something that worked in the footprint but was more than a normal DVC studio such as a true functional mini kitchen unit and sell more points in doing so.
 
i wanted to address this point independently. IMO it really doesn't matter though we can throw around guesses as to whey they did it and what they truly intended. They did it the way they did and they are selling the points. In reality, only those that buy at the Poly have a true vote and they voted when they bought or when they sell. The rest of us can chose to stay there or not based not the applicable factors. I've said before that it seems strange to me to have such a skewed setup but it doesn't hurt me or other owners and system options that aren't too far off (lower) in demand are always good. IMO they missed a tremendous opportunity to create something that worked in the footprint but was more than a normal DVC studio such as a true functional mini kitchen unit and sell more points in doing so.
Agreed. That 2nd bathroom is big enough to put a W/D in the corner. Since they don't offer options besides bungalows with w/d, adding those in would have solved a big complaint about not having 1BR and 2brs.

Either of those options, or both, mini kitchen or W/D would have made Poly a unique offering and the space was there.

The point of not offering those things in a studio is to entice owners to spend more points on the 1BR, an option not in competition with studios at Poly.

They were thinking outside their normal box enough to create a far different layout, but not enough so to violate their own conventions on what a studio vs a 1BR should have.

More to the point, they almost certainly could have justified a higher MRA for Poly studios with such additions. And as I suggested earlier, 2 additional points MRA for studios is worth about $45 million in sales.

There are 380 studios. An additional 5 grand in each for a W/D and mini kitchen layout would have cost $2 million more and they almost certainly could have sold and justified those $45 million in extra sales (2 more points per night on average) for the expense. Indeed, they probably could have pushed it by 3 points to about $70 million more.

Money on the table.
 
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