Fantasy Springs is opening June 6th 2024

[Disneyhanna]

I'm over the moon, y'all! I have a couple links with dates I am stalking open all the time and I refresh throughout the day. I've missed a few rooms I would have liked because I refresh and then go to a different tab and forget, and I come back and the room is sitting there taunting me LOL.

Anyways, tonight, I was able to grab a different package for June 5th. And guess what I got? My same Superior Harbor View room at MiraCosta but the regular version, not the special concierge version! I saved 22,000 yen or about $175 USD for essentially the same room, minus concierge. I was never going to be able to use the concierge lounge (I hear it's not very good and often has waits anyways). Plus the breakfast is in Oceano instead of Bella Vista Lounge which I think will have more variety anyways. I'm ecstatic as I was regretting the splurge on the Harbor View a tiny bit, but knocking off $175 makes it totally worth it.

Original room: Speciale Rooms & Suites Porto Paradiso Side Superior Room Harbor View(Twin Bed + Trundle Bed + Cruise Bed)
New room: Porto Paradiso Side Superior Room Harbor View(Twin Bed + Trundle Bed)

(could those room names get any more confusing...LOL)

I think this is the cheapest harbor view room now? Phew! Time to sleep so I can work to pay for this increasingly extravagant trip

 

[cinnamoroll]

The question is how limited the DPA and Standby Passes will be. They can completely control the supply of those.

I really hope the DPA lines aren't over an hour long

 

[Disneyhanna]

I really hope the DPA lines aren't over an hour long

I sure hope so too. I have no idea what to expect. Part of me wishes there would be no DPA available at least initially, only standby for non-VP holders. But I feel like they must have some algorithm set up to make sure it's not a crazy wait...who knows!

 

[twinstar2]

I think this is the cheapest harbor view room now? Phew! Time to sleep so I can work to pay for this increasingly extravagant trip

Congrats, Hanna! I too have been stalking and have booked and cancelled a few different things for the third week of June. I've just about reached my peak of possible extravagance for this trip (back-to-back 1-night vacation packages at Miracosta) and would love to dial it back by finding a room-only at Miracosta (or FSH, ha!) for either pre- or post-VP, and cancelling the other VP. Keeping two back-to-back VPs would be pretty crazy for me personally - props to those who have the energy for park-hopping. My head started spinning when I looked at the Travel Case! Fortunately I’ll still be in the states when the the 21-day full refund deadline for VPs comes, and a decision needs to be made. At 14-days out I’ll already be in Asia (Korea), probably pretty occupied and less able to stalk. Anyway, I’m super excited for you and I can’t wait for your opening day report!

 

[Disneyhanna]

Okay here's my back of the napkin math while I procrastinate on actual work:

There are a lot of sites out there that estimate hourly ride capacity, but a very rounded number for Frozen Ever After is about 1000 riders per hour. We don't know exactly how the FS rides will compare but I think it's a pretty good ballpark for now, if a bit conservative.

According to TP, here are the total rooms at TDR:

Disney Ambassador Hotel	504
Tokyo Disney Resort Toy Story Hotel	595
Tokyo Disneyland Hotel	701
Tokyo DisneySea Hotel MiraCosta	502
Tokyo DisneySea Fantasy Springs Hotel	475
Total	2777 (2302 before addition of FSH)

Now, I have ZERO clue what % of rooms are allocated to vacation packages vs. room-only. I'm sure it even varies by hotel. The one thing that's clear is they seem to be separate pools, so cancelling a VP at MC does not free up room-only availability at MC for example.

Then of course, we know FSH guests can purchase one-day passports, though I'm not sure if they're eligible every day or not. And vacation packages either have 1 of 2 days with a passport, or 1 of 3 days with a passport.

Totally making things up, let's say 75% of room availability is dedicated to VPs (I have a feeling it's lower but have on actual basis to support this lol). And let's conservatively assume everyone has a 2-day package (aka 50% with passport) and everyone at FSH has a passport either through their package or purchasing outright (100%).

On a given day that would give the following rooms with a theoretical passport:

• 475 rooms at FSH
• 2302 x 75% x 50% = 863 rooms at non-FSH
• Total of 1338 room with a passport, or approximately 50% of total rooms

Now, I have no idea on average people per room. I'm going to say 3 since most rooms are limited to 3-4 but again totally made up.

So that leaves 3x1338 = roughly 4000 people with a passport on a given day. Which I think is probably way higher than reality but just making things up here!

Now, hopefully, people will distribute themselves relatively evenly across the rides. Of course people will need to take breaks to eat, walk around, do other parts of DisneySea. DS is open for about 12 hours per day.

Now let's figure everyone aims to ride each of the four rides once, to start. With an average estimated ride capacity of 1000/hour, split between four rides, that's 4000 riders per hour. Which coincidentally aligns with the estimate 4000 eligible riders I calculated per day!

So in one single hour of park time, everyone could theoretically ride 1 of the 4 FS rides. So to finish all four, it could take about 4 hours.

Of course, this is before factoring any DPA, standby, down time, etc. And perhaps some of these rides will be bigger people-eaters than expected, and ride capacity could be 2000 per hour (Pirates is estimated closer to 2300/hr, BATB at 1800/hr). Or they could be slow-loading like US Peter Pan and closer to 700 per hour (though I think this is less likely given ride advancements and newer rides being built to put people through quickly).

And surely my estimate of how many people have passports is vastly overestimated. I would be surprised if 75% of rooms are allocated to VPs. It would probably be extremely hard to pick up room-only reservations if they were, and it hasn't been hard except at FSH (and sort of hard at MC but with some stalking, we all seem to be getting what we want). Some of the VPs will be 3-day packages and that will further reduce total passports. And while I'm sure many at FSH will purchase extra passports, I doubt it will be 100% given the $170 price tag. One day in FS may end up being enough for most people, especially locals who know they can return.

Now for some quick DPA analysis:

With DPA, the benefit is people will be spread out with return times. So let's say TDR allocates 4000 DPA per ride. (Pretending Tink uses DPA for simplicity's sake here.) That's about 333 people per hour assuming 12 hours, per ride. Assuming regular guests only manage one DPA each, that would be 16000 people getting a FS DPA. Considering DS capacity is 33k and assuming 4k already have passports, that's about 55% success rate against 100% capacity which is pretty darn good in my opinion.

So if all 4000 people with passports are in FS in a line, plus 333x4 = 1332 per hour from DPA, it will take 1.33 hours instead of 1 hour for everyone to ride one ride. So an extra 20 minutes for everyone. That doesn't seem too crazy.

Of course standby will also increase ridership but safe to say those lines will be atrocious and long and will not add many to the per hour count

Anyone still with me? Feel free to point out if I made any egregious errors. Idk why I wrote this much but I think I'm just trying to convince myself the lines won't be too bad lol.

 

[Disneyhanna]

Congrats, Hanna! I too have been stalking and have booked and cancelled a few different things for the third week of June. I've just about reached my peak of possible extravagance for this trip (back-to-back 1-night vacation packages at Miracosta) and would love to dial it back by finding a room-only at Miracosta (or FSH, ha!) for either pre- or post-VP, and cancelling the other VP. Keeping two back-to-back VPs would be pretty crazy for me personally - props to those who have the energy for park-hopping. My head started spinning when I looked at the Travel Case! Fortunately I’ll still be in the states when the the 21-day full refund deadline for VPs comes, and a decision needs to be made. At 14-days out I’ll already be in Asia (Korea), probably pretty occupied and less able to stalk. Anyway, I’m super excited for you and I can’t wait for your opening day report!

Two packages at MC is definitely a pretty penny! I hope you can grab a regular MC room! They go so fast. When I dropped my concierge package, it stayed available for about 10 minutes. Probably would have gone faster if it was a non-concierge room lol. I hear you on the travel case craziness. I'm always paranoid I'm cancelling/changing the wrong thing. I too have the 21 day mark on my calendar and will be stalking my rooms even more in the days leading up to that...not that I should, because pretty much everything I'm stalking would make things more expensive

 

[ilovepizza]

Hi everyone!

I have been trying to find an answer for this and had trouble. My reservation window is coming up to book for Oct 31st & Nov 1st. I kept going back and forth on deciding 2 days or 3 days and decided 2 days for vacation package. My concern is if i will still be eligible to book it this week for Oct 31 AND nov 1st in one go? I wasn't sure if I had to wait next month window to due to the Nov 1 date...hope that makes sense.

Also I plan to use chase card the preferred one and it's visa, has anyone had trouble with site accepting visa? Keep reading mixed reviews

 

[soniam]

Hi everyone!

I have been trying to find an answer for this and had trouble. My reservation window is coming up to book for Oct 31st & Nov 1st. I kept going back and forth on deciding 2 days or 3 days and decided 2 days for vacation package. My concern is if i will still be eligible to book it this week for Oct 31 AND nov 1st in one go? I wasn't sure if I had to wait next month window to due to the Nov 1 date...hope that makes sense.

Also I plan to use chase card the preferred one and it's visa, has anyone had trouble with site accepting visa? Keep reading mixed reviews

You can book into November as long as it starts in October. My Chase Disney Visa was the only one that worked, until I got my Chase Sapphire with no foreign transaction fees. They will refund the foreign fees if you cancel or make a change. Some cards don’t.

 

[Smugpugmug]

Hi everyone!

I have been trying to find an answer for this and had trouble. My reservation window is coming up to book for Oct 31st & Nov 1st. I kept going back and forth on deciding 2 days or 3 days and decided 2 days for vacation package. My concern is if i will still be eligible to book it this week for Oct 31 AND nov 1st in one go? I wasn't sure if I had to wait next month window to due to the Nov 1 date...hope that makes sense.

Also I plan to use chase card the preferred one and it's visa, has anyone had trouble with site accepting visa? Keep reading mixed reviews

If your start date is the 31st, it'll let you book for Nov. I tested this last month where I put the check in date for the last day of September and it allowed me to book a package into October.

I haven't booked my package yet (waiting for the November drop) but based off of my last trip buying tickets, the website denied any Visa card I used but accepted my Citi Mastercard without any issues.

 

[thanxfornoticin]

Based on what we've been reading, I believe if you're looking for a 3-day, 2-night package at TDR for 10/31 and 11/1, you should be able to book that May 1st. I think they start in Oct. Good luck!

 

[soniam]

If your start date is the 31st, it'll let you book for Nov. I tested this last month where I put the check in date for the last day of September and it allowed me to book a package into October.

I haven't booked my package yet (waiting for the November drop) but based off of my last trip buying tickets, the website denied any Visa card I used but accepted my Citi Mastercard without any issues.

I hate the CC issues. It wouldn’t take my Citi MC but has taken my Chase Disney and Sapphire Visas

 

[thanxfornoticin]

I hate the CC issues. It wouldn’t take my Citi MC but has taken my Chase Disney and Sapphire Visas

Seems to be the real wild card of the whole process. You'd think paying all that money would be easier!

 

[Disneyhanna]

I hate the CC issues. It wouldn’t take my Citi MC but has taken my Chase Disney and Sapphire Visas

Meanwhile I got my Citi MC to work and not my CSP LOL!

 

[Smugpugmug]

I hate the CC issues. It wouldn’t take my Citi MC but has taken my Chase Disney and Sapphire Visas

The website accepts or denies credit cards based off of *~vibes~* and nothing else.

 

[ilovepizza]

Awesome thank you everyone for confirming I appreciate it Praying my visa goes through. This is my first time doing this and going. I am dreading being up at 2 am to book >_<

 

[soniam]

Seems to be the real wild card of the whole process. You'd think paying all that money would be easier!

JUST TAKE MY MONEY

 

[Runnsally]

Okay here's my back of the napkin math while I procrastinate on actual work:

There are a lot of sites out there that estimate hourly ride capacity, but a very rounded number for Frozen Ever After is about 1000 riders per hour. We don't know exactly how the FS rides will compare but I think it's a pretty good ballpark for now, if a bit conservative.

According to TP, here are the total rooms at TDR:

Disney Ambassador Hotel	504
Tokyo Disney Resort Toy Story Hotel	595
Tokyo Disneyland Hotel	701
Tokyo DisneySea Hotel MiraCosta	502
Tokyo DisneySea Fantasy Springs Hotel	475
Total	2777 (2302 before addition of FSH)

Now, I have ZERO clue what % of rooms are allocated to vacation packages vs. room-only. I'm sure it even varies by hotel. The one thing that's clear is they seem to be separate pools, so cancelling a VP at

Okay here's my back of the napkin math while I procrastinate on actual work:

There are a lot of sites out there that estimate hourly ride capacity, but a very rounded number for Frozen Ever After is about 1000 riders per hour. We don't know exactly how the FS rides will compare but I think it's a pretty good ballpark for now, if a bit conservative.

According to TP, here are the total rooms at TDR:

Disney Ambassador Hotel	504
Tokyo Disney Resort Toy Story Hotel	595
Tokyo Disneyland Hotel	701
Tokyo DisneySea Hotel MiraCosta	502
Tokyo DisneySea Fantasy Springs Hotel	475
Total	2777 (2302 before addition of FSH)

Now, I have ZERO clue what % of rooms are allocated to vacation packages vs. room-only. I'm sure it even varies by hotel. The one thing that's clear is they seem to be separate pools, so cancelling a VP at MC does not free up room-only availability at MC for example.

Then of course, we know FSH guests can purchase one-day passports, though I'm not sure if they're eligible every day or not. And vacation packages either have 1 of 2 days with a passport, or 1 of 3 days with a passport.

Totally making things up, let's say 75% of room availability is dedicated to VPs (I have a feeling it's lower but have on actual basis to support this lol). And let's conservatively assume everyone has a 2-day package (aka 50% with passport) and everyone at FSH has a passport either through their package or purchasing outright (100%).

On a given day that would give the following rooms with a theoretical passport:

• 475 rooms at FSH
• 2302 x 75% x 50% = 863 rooms at non-FSH
• Total of 1338 room with a passport, or approximately 50% of total rooms

Now, I have no idea on average people per room. I'm going to say 3 since most rooms are limited to 3-4 but again totally made up.

So that leaves 3x1338 = roughly 4000 people with a passport on a given day. Which I think is probably way higher than reality but just making things up here!

Now, hopefully, people will distribute themselves relatively evenly across the rides. Of course people will need to take breaks to eat, walk around, do other parts of DisneySea. DS is open for about 12 hours per day.

Now let's figure everyone aims to ride each of the four rides once, to start. With an average estimated ride capacity of 1000/hour, split between four rides, that's 4000 riders per hour. Which coincidentally aligns with the estimate 4000 eligible riders I calculated per day!

So in one single hour of park time, everyone could theoretically ride 1 of the 4 FS rides. So to finish all four, it could take about 4 hours.

Of course, this is before factoring any DPA, standby, down time, etc. And perhaps some of these rides will be bigger people-eaters than expected, and ride capacity could be 2000 per hour (Pirates is estimated closer to 2300/hr, BATB at 1800/hr). Or they could be slow-loading like US Peter Pan and closer to 700 per hour (though I think this is less likely given ride advancements and newer rides being built to put people through quickly).

And surely my estimate of how many people have passports is vastly overestimated. I would be surprised if 75% of rooms are allocated to VPs. It would probably be extremely hard to pick up room-only reservations if they were, and it hasn't been hard except at FSH (and sort of hard at MC but with some stalking, we all seem to be getting what we want). Some of the VPs will be 3-day packages and that will further reduce total passports. And while I'm sure many at FSH will purchase extra passports, I doubt it will be 100% given the $170 price tag. One day in FS may end up being enough for most people, especially locals who know they can return.

Now for some quick DPA analysis:

With DPA, the benefit is people will be spread out with return times. So let's say TDR allocates 4000 DPA per ride. (Pretending Tink uses DPA for simplicity's sake here.) That's about 333 people per hour assuming 12 hours, per ride. Assuming regular guests only manage one DPA each, that would be 16000 people getting a FS DPA. Considering DS capacity is 33k and assuming 4k already have passports, that's about 55% success rate against 100% capacity which is pretty darn good in my opinion.

So if all 4000 people with passports are in FS in a line, plus 333x4 = 1332 per hour from DPA, it will take 1.33 hours instead of 1 hour for everyone to ride one ride. So an extra 20 minutes for everyone. That doesn't seem too crazy.

Of course standby will also increase ridership but safe to say those lines will be atrocious and long and will not add many to the per hour count

Anyone still with me? Feel free to point out if I made any egregious errors. Idk why I wrote this much but I think I'm just trying to convince myself the lines won't be too bad lol.

Fun math - I would guess 2000-2500 ppd with FS passports.

 

[Disneyhanna]

Fun math - I would guess 2000-2500 ppd with FS passports.

I think that's a much more realistic number for sure. Then even if 50% of guests got some sort of DPA, in theory the lines would still be under an hour if everyone is spread out.

 

[hopemax]

Ahhh! We have an October trip planned and it's finally time to try for a Fantasy Springs package this week! We haven't booked anything else, so we wouldn't be locking into a set of dates, and see what we could get first. This trip was supposed to happen October 2020, and we all know what happened, and then decided to delay until the new land was open. So it's a long time coming.

Glad to see recent reports that the Chase Sapphire and Disney Visa have processed without issues. When we booked our 2018 trip, we had to do 3 reservations. First two, no problems, third one... DH was on the phone with the CC person to approve it, and they kept saying they couldn't even see it on their end. It got worked out, but Japan + CC is an adventure!

 

[ilovepizza]

I'm not even going to try to do fantasy springs package, I've already accepted it is unattainable for me and will make things easier lol