Long-term loonie forcasts?

[mshanson3121]

Has anyone heard, or do any amateur analysts have a prediction at what the loonie will be doing in the long-term future, 2016, 2017 and even beyond? I know there are many variables, I'm just wondering how realistic it is to hope that the loonie will be back into the .85-.90 range by summer 2017.

 

[Blackadder337]

I have read there isn't expected to be much change until the end of 2016. But I'm choosing to remain optimistic.

 

[thetallone101]

Every financial article I've read and investor I've talked with said that it won't rebound upwards for another 2-3 years. It's going to go down about another 4 cents into the New Year (apparently) and then stay low...it might come up a few cents but it won't be much better for quite some time.

 

[bankr63]

Well, I'd like to think several of them will be nesting in my back pocket, but despite my most sincere efforts, many come to check it out, but seldom stay for very long.

Seriously, no one, expert or not, can predict what it will be doing in 8 weeks let alone 2 years from now.

 

[Fennella Brewer]

Everything that I have read indicates that it will drop further until 2016 and not recover until the end of 2017. But there are so many contributing factors, it really cannot be predicted. Price of oil, US Fed interest rate, BoC bank rate, and GDP index are probably just a few of the indicators that need to be looked at. I have set up a US bank account and am transferring as much as I can before my Disney trip in February. I suspect it will be dismal by then.

 

[mort1331]

and that is why we call it the LOONIE

 

[migel]

Once oil rebounds, and it will, we should crawl back up to the low 80's at least. I don't expect this for at least another year. 2016 will be the greatest challenge.

 

[bankr63]

Once oil rebounds, and it will, we should crawl back up to the low 80's at least. I don't expect this for at least another year. 2016 will be the greatest challenge.

I doubt oil will recover in North America until the Americans stop fracking. That will happen eventually, but not soon. In America's search for natural gas they have unleashed a huge amount of cheap by-product oil. This very light Bakken crude (or similar) is much easier to refine than the very heavy Canadian tar sands crude, and it is basically a waste product of fracking. In hind sight, it is all so obvious. But no one saw it coming.

Canada needs to refocus away from the Oil and Gas sector if we are ever to be going concern. Bring back all of those manufacturing jobs we basically gave to the Americans, where the manufacturing sector has been growing steadily even as ours declined. Our previous petro economy only worked until the bubble burst. And that bubble is really burst now. Several experts saw this coming, but the vast majority were blindsided. Same thing that happens to the prognosticators on the dollar. The vast majority will side with the talking heads, until they are wrong and the cranks suddenly look like they knew what they were talking about all along.

If we want our dollar to do well, let's hope the new government shows the kind of leadership to get the economy back on track and invests in getting Canada working again.

 

[migel]

Part of the Saudi push is to kill American fracking. Whether or not it works, the most recent CND predictions are an 80 cent dollar by mid 2017. I don't have much confidence in our new government when it comes to the economy however. I'll make a note to check this post in a year, see how we're doing.

 

[dmbcanada]

Once the Americans elect Donald Trump, no one will want to deal with them and the US dollar will crumble, and then our dollar will be worth more than the greenback!

 

[mshanson3121]

Part of the Saudi push is to kill American fracking. Whether or not it works, the most recent CND predictions are an 80 cent dollar by mid 2017. I don't have much confidence in our new government when it comes to the economy however. I'll make a note to check this post in a year, see how we're doing.

$0.80 is definitely better than $0.72. If only the banks would stop charging so bloody much on top of the discount. RBC is charging $1.43 to buy $1.00 USD. That's painful. We've pretty well stopped buying anything in the US. And if the dollar doesn't rebound somewhat by 2017, our next trip is certainly not going to be what we were hoping.

 

[dis_guy]

Our previous petro economy only worked until the bubble burst. And that bubble is really burst now. Several experts saw this coming, but the vast majority were blindsided.

Too true and as I'm fond of saying:"The stone-age didn't end because they ran out of rocks..."