Annual dues = $8
Average rental rate = $12 (this is 50% more than annual dues)
If VB dues do go to $12, then the rental rates will probably be $18
I DO NOT think this is an issue to worry about
I did a quick type and probably didnt explain all the factors that I considered. It's not a singular factor to consider when determining whether VB is a better option, rather multiple.
Also, I would not assume rental rates increase with annual dues. Your dues will go up every year regardless of the economy. If we have a dip in the economy you will not be able to increase rental rates at the same pace. Supply will be greater than demand.
Here is why I thought a safer play would be to just renting points from an owner vs buying VB and holding over a few years. I am not sure what was paid for VB, but I am just going to assume it was $48, which seems like a decent price during this market.
250 VB points at $48 pp along with CC = $12,500
3 years of VB dues beginning in 2016 (4 percent annual increase) = $6,534
Selling assumption in 3 years that you will lose about 12% of what you paid due to commissions, estoppel fees, etc = $1,500
TOTAL COST of VB $8,034
Renting
Contact owner that owns BWV and say I will give you $13 pp for the next 3 years who can book a 2 bedroom Standard room for you during low season.
Total Cost 220 x $13 x 3 = $8,580
Being a non-owner of BWV will also mean that you will not always get your standard category 2 bedroom. Lets say 2 of the 3 years you did not land a standard 2 bedroom during low season, it would cost you an additional points. So you point total would look like this:
220 year 1/ 269 year 2/ 269 year 3. Total 758 points. You have to buy 8 points at $13 pp =
$104
What if you never land a standard room (which can be very likely)? Over 3 years you would have to buy 57 points @ $13 pp =
$741.
So if you wanted to stay at BWV over the next 3 years and cannot land a standard room in any of those 3 years, VB would actually cost you more than renting from a BWV owner.
You also may be able to rent for $12 pp at BWV saving you
$660.
In addition, I haven't even factored in the time value of keeping your money in your pocket vs. having it tied up in DVC.
You could probably make this case for other DVC resorts in this current enviroment in which prices are very high and the chances of them continuing to go up is slim. That's why I think the current DVC model of becoming an owner has little financial benefit compared to renting. Resale prices along with maint fees are steadily decreasing the financial benefit.