Park attendance/performance down?? Iger vs. anecdotes??

halfpintpeggy · Oct 20, 2016

Wdwfan2016 said:
That's true, but the point I was making is that even with decreased park attendance, resort occupancy has not been affected.

See jtowntoflorida's answer above! Makes a lot of sense...

cmash95 · Oct 20, 2016

dvc keeps the resorts afloat as well as the parks. attendance has fallen this year for a couple of reasons. 1 south american economic collapse as well as the olympics. and 2. people are waiting for pandora, toy story, and star wars. with the cost of a vacation at disney these days, domestic travelers want something new and exciting. and new and exciting doesnt mean frozen ride.

djohn06 · Oct 20, 2016

lockedoutlogic said:
I don't doubt that all...and since Comcast resurrected universal - I bet many more take side trips...

But the aggregate total - I believe - is still a ridiculously high rate of DVC patronizing Disney parks and the shopping/dining most of the time.

Yeah I just use my DVC for the transportation and Disney feel. Otherwise, me and my family enjoy our Universal passes until WDW figures out how to complete construction projects.

lockedoutlogic · Oct 20, 2016

djohn06 said:
Yeah I just use my DVC for the transportation and Disney feel. Otherwise, me and my family enjoy our Universal passes until WDW figures out how to complete construction projects.

Don't hold your breath on that

lockedoutlogic · Oct 20, 2016

cmash95 said:
dvc keeps the resorts afloat as well as the parks. attendance has fallen this year for a couple of reasons. 1 south american economic collapse as well as the olympics. and 2. people are waiting for pandora, toy story, and star wars. with the cost of a vacation at disney these days, domestic travelers want something new and exciting. and new and exciting doesnt mean frozen ride.

I hope you're right...I really do...

But I don't trust people to stay away for any reason...until they ACTUALLY stay away.

Redarrow5150 · Oct 21, 2016

All CEO's when it comes to financial statement of the company out in public aren't going to be flippant or have something come back to bite them in the rear end. If he says they see no slow down at the parks then consider it a fact. Now having said that keep in mind when he says this type of statement he's also factoring in pacing of what they see. So what he's saying isn't just YTD.

lockedoutlogic · Oct 21, 2016

Redarrow5150 said:
All CEO's when it comes to financial statement of the company out in public aren't going to be flippant or have something come back to bite them in the rear end. If he says they see no slow down at the parks then consider it a fact. Now having said that keep in mind when he says this type of statement he's also factoring in pacing of what they see. So what he's saying isn't just YTD.

All CEO statements include a path to more money interwoven with enough plausible deniability to back out of anything they say...as in 100% of the time.

Redarrow5150 · Oct 21, 2016

lockedoutlogic said:
All CEO statements include a path to more money interwoven with enough plausible deniability to back out of anything they say...as in 100% of the time.

Not when it comes to financial statements of the company. The SEC would be all over him with fines and investigations of such a high profile CEO and company. Apple CEO Tim Cooks in August 2015 (when China was in financial chaos) said they hadn't seen a slow down in Apple sales and was found to be true later on. When CEO's come out with these type of statements (which are rare) take it to the bank of no wiggle room when saying it out in public.

lockedoutlogic · Oct 21, 2016

Redarrow5150 said:
Not when it comes to financial statements of the company. The SEC would be all over him with fines and investigations of such a high profile CEO and company. Apple CEO Tim Cooks in August 2015 (when China was in financial chaos) said they hadn't seen a slow down in Apple sales and was found to be true later on. When CEO's come out with these type of statements (which are rare) take it to the bank of no wiggle room when saying it out in public.

I understand what you're saying their...if you use numbers or language that the sec determines leads to Financial institution or investor decisions.

Iger typically says "everything is good...we have great stuff coming!" And usually leaves it at that.

Every business or travel article written in the last 6 months has cautioned or questioned a slowdown.

There most likely is some fire behind the smoke here...but I'm sure not enough For bob to not wiggle out of it.

Redarrow5150 · Oct 21, 2016

Yes but in this case it's different. He's specifically addressing park attendance which is why I believe the statement has more validity. To be honest Wall Street financial analysts have been saying a slowdown in the U.S. for virtually every sector because "it's overdue" is laughable. Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians have been overdue how many years now?

lockedoutlogic said:
I understand what you're saying their...if you use numbers or language that the sec determines leads to Financial institution or investor decisions.

Iger typically says "everything is good...we have great stuff coming!" And usually leaves it at that.

Every business or travel article written in the last 6 months has cautioned or questioned a slowdown.

There most likely is some fire behind the smoke here...but I'm sure not enough For bob to not wiggle out of it.

lockedoutlogic · Oct 21, 2016

Redarrow5150 said:
Yes but in this case it's different. He's specifically addressing park attendance which is why I believe the statement has more validity. To be honest Wall Street financial analysts have been saying a slowdown in the U.S. for virtually every sector because "it's overdue" is laughable. Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians have been overdue how many years now?

My interpretation is that he skirted talking actual financials well enough in parks by using terms like "strong" and "effective"

Even "revenue is up" allows for wiggle...while "profits up" does not.

Anyway...the tribe or the Cubs are going to win the World Series...make no mistake...

So that "recession" is in play

One note though...travel is viewed differently than the general economy...as it is 100% discretionary. A slowdown in travel doesn't necessarily mean it's being predicted as part of a larger crash...hypothetically they could stand alone.

ChipnDale79 · Oct 21, 2016

Wdwfan2016 said:
That's true, but the point I was making is that even with decreased park attendance, resort occupancy has not been affected.

Also makes you wonder if people have decided to shorten their park days overall...we used to get 8 day park hoppers and would go in the parks on arrival day and eat breakfast in the parks on departure day. We stay the same number of nights, but now only get 6 day park hoppers.

lockedoutlogic · Oct 21, 2016

ChipnDale79 said:
Also makes you wonder if people have decided to shorten their park days overall...we used to get 8 day park hoppers and would go in the parks on arrival day and eat breakfast in the parks on departure day. We stay the same number of nights, but now only get 6 day park hoppers.

At that length there is little incentive to "save the days"...other than the cost of food and lack of "palette tickling"

However...there is no incentive to go more days from 1-4.

So I can see 5 night/3 day tickets being a preferable option now...it's like $150 a pop to get to 5...that is significant. (Im too lazy to look it up...so if the savings is actually $110-120 a day...you get the idea.

jade1 · Oct 21, 2016

ChipnDale79 said:
Also makes you wonder if people have decided to shorten their park days overall...we used to get 8 day park hoppers and would go in the parks on arrival day and eat breakfast in the parks on departure day. We stay the same number of nights, but now only get 6 day park hoppers.

Certainly some % do this. But then again if arrival day is only $12.50 I would guess many go in a park-even if just Wishes or Star Wars Fireworks and 3 FP+, even departure day at $12.50 would likely get some to go in IMO.

jade1 · Oct 21, 2016

lockedoutlogic said:
So I can see 5 night/3 day tickets being a preferable option now...it's like $150 a pop to get to 5...that is significant. (Im too lazy to look it up...so if the savings is actually $110-120 a day...you get the idea.

Day 4 is $35, day 5 and 6 (5 night stay) are $15 ea...

Or the 3 day ticket is $290, and the next 3 days are $65 total ($22/day ave)

lockedoutlogic · Oct 21, 2016

jade1 said:
Day 4 is $35, day 5 and 6 (5 night stay) are $15 ea...

Or the 3 day ticket is $290, and the next 3 days are $65 total ($22/day ave)

Ok...so under the current model...if you go 1-3 you're screwed...more days are more advantageous.

So the outsiders past the purple gates...who in the past could get 3 days for around $200 and 5+ for $300-$400...now may call it at one.

That could explain declining attendance but higher occupancy.

That could also be a product of 2 parks in construction disarray and one forgotten...meaning the "we'll just do Disney" can show up.

You might want to sit down for this:

Some people...lots of people...in the park right now don't like it. Shocking, huh?

At $100 a day nonrefundable and no incentive to "lock in in advance" (A huge mistake now that eisners regime did better) may cause pause of walk away ahead.

And there's legimate competition now...frankly there never was before...that's the price of stagnation.

jade1 · Oct 21, 2016

lockedoutlogic said:
Ok...so under the current model...if you go 1-3 you're screwed...more days are more advantageous.

So the outsiders past the purple gates...who in the past could get 3 days for around $200 and 5+ for $300-$400...now may call it at one.

That could explain declining attendance but higher occupancy.

That could also be a product of 2 parks in construction disarray and one forgotten...meaning the "we'll just do Disney" can show up.

You might want to sit down for this:

Some people...lots of people...in the park right now don't like it. Shocking, huh?

At $100 a day nonrefundable and no incentive to "lock in in advance" (A huge mistake now that eisners regime did better) may cause pause of walk away ahead.

And there's legimate competition now...frankly there never was before...that's the price of stagnation.

I was just filling in the too lazy to look up by the way.

lockedoutlogic · Oct 21, 2016

jade1 said:
I was just filling in the too lazy to look up by the way.

And I took the pass...and went full court offense...

I got my second wind

Redarrow5150 · Oct 21, 2016

Agree but spending increases or decreases might signal areas of the economy.

lockedoutlogic said:
My interpretation is that he skirted talking actual financials well enough in parks by using terms like "strong" and "effective"

Even "revenue is up" allows for wiggle...while "profits up" does not.

Anyway...the tribe or the Cubs are going to win the World Series...make no mistake...

So that "recession" is in play

One note though...travel is viewed differently than the general economy...as it is 100% discretionary. A slowdown in travel doesn't necessarily mean it's being predicted as part of a larger crash...hypothetically they could stand alone.

djohn06 · Oct 23, 2016

ChipnDale79 said:
Also makes you wonder if people have decided to shorten their park days overall...we used to get 8 day park hoppers and would go in the parks on arrival day and eat breakfast in the parks on departure day. We stay the same number of nights, but now only get 6 day park hoppers.

They have. I see a lot more DVC rental requests for a shorter period of time.

Personally, our family sees no reason to attend a WDW parks for more than 3 days during a trip. Peak 1 day pricing is thinning crowds but it's also forcing families to look elsewhere. Last year, Universal had passes for $230 ish. Made it a no brainer to get another trip out of us within the 1 year window. It was set so that after the 4th day, you break even. The break even for a Disney season pass for a non Floridian Non DVC family was 3x as long. I know Uni has raised prices again this year, but if you can make Unis lowest pass work, it is still affordable for many families.

I love it cause my kids like Uni better as a park. But, we all like the DVC resorts better.

Lastly, with my kids getting older, (youngest is 8), I want to get a Legoland and Sea World trip in. Again, just another stay where I am saving lots of money not going to a WDW park.

Park attendance/performance down?? Iger vs. anecdotes??

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