SSGNCNG
Respiratuer
- Joined
- Aug 25, 2016
We're going in October but we did out booking back in late March. We didn't get our first choice but there aren't many 3 bedroom villas to begin with so we ended up at SSR.
ALL RESORTS BOOKED FROM OCT to JAN
- Thread starter Carl Aird
- Start date
We're going in October but we did out booking back in late March. We didn't get our first choice but there aren't many 3 bedroom villas to begin with so we ended up at SSR.
SSGNCNG
Respiratuer
- Joined
- Aug 25, 2016
Below are screen shots I took from the DVC reservation system back in May 2015 of bungalow availability for the rest of the year. The gray represents nights on which the bungalows were completely booked.
That actually is not surprising at all. I would expect Poly owners to fill most all the slots at the bungalows long before that 7 month window opens.
There's no way to know the breakdown of owners vs. non-owners. The screen shot I posted was captured around the 3rd week of May, meaning that those last 2 weeks of December--which showed a lot of open nights--were still outside of 7 months. But even on those nights, we have no way of knowing how many villas were still vacant. Poly owners could be booking 10% of the bungalows before 7 months...50%...80%. That's a total mystery.
_auroraborealis_
I like marshmallows. And adult beverages.
- Joined
- Oct 18, 2015
I'm pretty sure that if you have $$ in hand and call Disney directly, they will move Bungalow inventory OUT of DVC for you.
Not having that kind of $$ in hand, I've not tried it.
Not having that kind of $$ in hand, I've not tried it.
- Joined
- Aug 14, 2008
I'd like that as it would make me feel a lot better about booking a 1 bedroom over a studio.
Given that Disney itself owns millions of unsold points and many villas are given to CRO due to owners trading for non-DVC destination, I suspect most villa configurations are available to cash guests on any given night.
I would not expect Disney to have an established policy / pattern of arbitrarily removing timeshare accommodations to sell to cash guests. State regulators would most definitely have a problem with that.
supersnoop
What time is the three o'clock parade?
- Joined
- Nov 13, 2013
While that's helpful, it doesn't necessarily tell the whole, true story. How much of PVB is declared? Plus, reserve-able rooms only have to match the points that are declared, not the actual units. They may have declared 75% of the bungalows, but they can effective trade for studio availability and send almost all of the bungalows to cash reservations. We don't know how many bungalows were actually available to DVC members on any of those nights. It could have been one or it could have been 20.Below are screen shots I took from the DVC reservation system back in May 2015 of bungalow availability for the rest of the year. The gray represents nights on which the bungalows were completely booked.
As of May 2015, 10 of the 20 bungalows had been declared. But there were also a very small number of Poly points sold a the time. It stands to reason that as sales continue for the Poly, they will attract owners who are drawn to the bungalows.
Six more were declared in January 2016, and trends for the next 6 months are very similar; as I noted earlier, 85% of the next 150 nights have no bungalow availability. And even nights which should some availability, it could be as little as 1 or 2 rooms. Logically it makes little sense that members would book 16 bungalows on one night and just 4 or 5 the next.
The physical ROOMS do not have to match what is declared, but the room types do. DVC has added 16 bungalows to member inventory, so 16 bungalows should be available to members each night.
The trade-out programs give DVC some flexibility for pulling back rooms, but they have a responsibility to make sure the pull-backs are equitable. The developer cannot cherry pick the most profitable resorts/rooms/views for cash reservations at the expense of owners.
_auroraborealis_
I like marshmallows. And adult beverages.
- Joined
- Oct 18, 2015
BUT if the profitability overlaps nicely with "rooms not getting booked on points," they actually have a fiduciary responsibility to make that trade-out. DVC's goal is 95-100% occupancy, after all.
The theory has always been that more people are buying studio-class points than bungalow-class points, and that for most, a night in a bungalow is a split-stay luxury. Hard to say how the bookings are panning out from this angle.
Dean
DIS Veteran<br><a href="http://www.wdwinfo.com/dis
- Joined
- Aug 19, 1999
What people planned when the bought is irrelevant. The system is required per the POS to make changes if things get too far out of bounds. Whether the studio vs 1 BR or the seasons meet that criteria, non of us know because we don't have the numbers. My guess is it does or is very close for the studio vs 1 BR issue but is maybe/maybe not for the seasons issue, esp the early Dec.
As I noted, we don't have the data. I'm thinking the studio vs 1 BR is more out of balance than the seasonal issue. The other component is they will want to macro manage rather than micro. If it's not over their set threshold, they'll likely drag their feet indefinitely even if it's very close. A reallocation is not a cheap or easy thing to do and certainly not something they should do on a whim. They've got to be certain it's needed.
When you look at other timeshares, the differential between studios and 1 BR within DVC is skewed.
Per the POS, unbooked rooms which are part of the condo association and primarily accessible to members can only be released for cash bookings 60 days out.
Key being "theory." Most negative comments being directed at the bungalows seem to to come from the perspective of "I don't have enough points to stay there and to me they are a poorer value than grand villas, therefore they are an overpriced failure."
Yet the limited data we have access to (availability) suggests that occupancy rates of the bungalows is consistently high. We now have somewhere in the neighborhood of 5000 villas in the DVC program, of which only 20 are bungalows. It only takes a very small portion of the membership willing to pay those rates in order to fill the bungalows.
Dean
DIS Veteran<br><a href="http://www.wdwinfo.com/dis
- Joined
- Aug 19, 1999
Tim, we really don't know the breakdown of how they're booked. They could fall into a number of groups including home resort points, 7 month points, exchange points to use for cash, developer owned points, breakage; maybe there are others. Plus we don't necessarily know how close they are to being booked up if available. To me it's a little like the studio vs 1 BR issue. One side suggests if they eventually get used, that's good enough; the other than they should book up at around the same rate to judge the demand and the latter is where I come down on this subject. Another issue, one I believe we saw with SSR points, is that new members will tend to try options 1 or 2 trips then migrate to more realistic or preferred options so it'll likely be a few years before one can say too much. With SSR there were more points (% wise AND total) active at 7 months out than other WDW properties it appeared to me. The truth is that we'll never know for sure in all likelihood but there are 2 pieces of info that may eventually give us insight. One is how fast they book starting with the 11 months window compared to comparable options and the other is whether there eventually is a reallocation which I suspect there will be. IMO the 3 BR are the best comparison for the bungalows. I think the booking right at the 7 month window will add SOME additional SECONDARY information. Personally I'm doubting they demand will match the other options even with the limited numbers but we'll see. A quick look at availability starting in Feb suggests that the Poly in general might be less popular than BLT and BWV, the 2 options I compared to starting at the 11 month window and working backwards but it looks like availability in general is pretty good so it's hard to draw too much of a conclusion from that limited data.
drusba
I went to Iowa once, and it was closed.
- Joined
- Aug 19, 1999
For Poly, you really need to get closer to sell out before you can definitely determine reliable patterns as to how often and how fast bungalows can fill. For example, last year Poly was new, Disney was entitled to most use of the bungalows based on points sold and thus owners had minimal time they could reserve, you always have a large group of owners from other resorts at the beginning that wants to try something once, and persons from other resorts were actually in a better position to reserve them at the high point cost because they did not have to pay $165 a point to get their points. Also, seeing them filled for the high demand late Sep 2016 to early Jan 2017 period at this point does not provide a true picture because Disney could stick a small tent on the beach, charge 100 points a night, and fill it by four months out for that time of year.
The bungalows have been a mixed bag for 2016 but it is still too early to tell what the real pattern will be. For example, mid-Jan through March was open at both 60 days and 30 days out except for Presidents weekend, Princess half marathon weekend and two days in mid-March, but DVD added 6 bungalows to DVC inventory in Jan and possibly rooms were open partly because the new rooms had just been added. Just before February 24, April was showing 12 nights filled (10 of those during Easter week and the week after); May had five nights filled, two in early May and three during Memorial Day weekend; early June had two filled; and July 3 and 4 were gone with the rest of the year open. Then a strange thing happened on February 24. The last week of April through June 9 filled at the same time. I do not know the explanation but question whether all those rooms and dates were actually reserved at the same time. Some of those dates in May and June days opened up later, and at the end of April, June still had 20 days open.
In early June another strange event happened resulting in 21 days of July and 27 days in Aug showing as filled. However, that changed and on June 20, July was open for 27 days, and Aug was open for 21 days. On July 8, July still had 10 days in the remainder of the month still open while Aug was still open for 12. At the end of July, September had 12 days open. October through Dec filled on average about 4 to 5 months out although a small number of dates in mid-Oct, race weekend in November, Thanksgiving time, first week of Dec and Christmas week filled near the 7-month window.
The fill rate for bungalows has been slower this year than for the VGF GV's but, of course, there are only 6 GV's. Those GV's also had many days open at 60 days out during the mid-Jan to late Sep time period but not near as many as Poly. Currently the bungalows are open mid-Jan 2017 and thereafter, matching SSR GV's, but other GV's are showing more fill time.
I do not perceive any reason to lower Poly bungalow points and raise studios. That should never be done just because bungalows are not filling before the breakage point at 60 days out. That would also be true for any resort that has GVs. The only possible reason to ever lower bungalow and raise studio points would be because the studios are showing serious reservation problems, but Poly is not showing that. Poly studios have had no issues of filling quickly at the 11-month window -- for the mid-Jan to late Sep period this year (and thus far next year through late March), they were usually open at 7 months out and beyond. For the late Sep to marathon weekend in Jan period, only some of the very high demand dates filled before 7 months out this year. Open dates did tend to fill extremely quickly at 8 a.m. at 7 months out, but as a near park resort, Poly stood alone in even having studios to get much of the time at 7 months out. Moreover, that high demand quarter is a seasonal issue for all of WDW DVC and thus the fix, if any, would be shifting points among seasons not between the bungalows and studios. Poly's situation is likely to become somewhat worse as it approaches sell out, but with the huge number of studios it has, it has a decent chance of avoiding problems like the one that has developed at VGF where studios can be difficult to get even at 11 months out at a number of times during that high demand last quarter of the year.
The issue I perceive with Poly is the future of DVC that it is creating, which actually started with VGF. In the 2 1/2 year period before VGF went on sale, Disney raised the price per point for BLT, after it was already close to sell out, by 40% when inflation was next to nothing. Thus, when it introduced VGF at a price just below BLT, Disney was able to create the impression among purchasers that VGF was a bargain when, in fact, it was being sold at a price much higher than almost all of BLT had been sold. Added to the increase in price was an increase in points needed per night at VGF for like rooms over BLT, thus adding to the increased cost to the purchaser. That high price per point and points per night, along with a low 100 point minimum purchase for new purchasers, and the low number of studios at VGF, caused the problem that exists now at VGF for getting studios because far too many purchased there to get only studios.
That oversell-of-studios business model continued with Poly, but sheer numbers of studios might save it from having the VGF 11-month problem. There is still only a 100 point minimum. There is the very high price per point combined with high points per night. Then there are the bungalows which add a huge number of points to sell to mostly purchasers who are buying enough points to get only studios, e.g., it is not likely you are going to have large numbers of purchasers spending the $200,000 needed to get a week during magic season in a bungalow. That kind of purchaser has never been Disney's target audience. Moreover, there is no in-between option for purchasers to decide to purchase enough points to possibly get a 1BR or 2BR; thus the decision being made by most purchasers is to buy only enough points for a studio even if they could afford more. Disney is creating a huge class of owners who have enough points to get only studios, including when they look to reserve other near park options at 7 months out. Meanwhile, Disney has created the five person studio at other near park DVC resorts that exists with Poly. Thus, one of the effects of the Poly model will be to significantly increase the demand for studios at the 7-month window for other near park resorts.
In addition, Disney gets the best of all worlds with the bungalows. It has created signature accommodations that it can put on advertisements promoting WDW in general and passes on the costs of building them to DVC purchasers. It can charge large amounts a night for a number of them when not reserved by 60 days out by members, and likely that is going to end up being for a significant amount of time. And that breakage rental income will be almost all profit. except for a small percentage that goes to offset dues, because it is those Poly DVC members who purchased to get only studios who are going to pay for the operation and maintenance of those bungalows through dues. That model seems to be carrying over to the new Copper Creek at WL with the creation of cabins on the beach that are likely to also cost a fortune in combined price per point and points per night, although Copper Creek may end up having something other than studios in the redone portion of WL. In other words, with Poly and soon-to-be Copper Creek, Disney has discovered the way to increase its hotel business, at least part-time, with signature units, and have someone else, the DVC members, pay for the construction and maintenance of those units.
A random point for which the explanation may arguably be that Disney does not really want members taking the bungalows once you are at the 60-day window is that the new tool on its site that tells what is still open at 60 days out usually has not provided most of the bungalow days that are still open. Of course, the explanation could alternatively be the usual one, that Disney's IT group has once again created a system that does not work correctly.
The bungalows have been a mixed bag for 2016 but it is still too early to tell what the real pattern will be. For example, mid-Jan through March was open at both 60 days and 30 days out except for Presidents weekend, Princess half marathon weekend and two days in mid-March, but DVD added 6 bungalows to DVC inventory in Jan and possibly rooms were open partly because the new rooms had just been added. Just before February 24, April was showing 12 nights filled (10 of those during Easter week and the week after); May had five nights filled, two in early May and three during Memorial Day weekend; early June had two filled; and July 3 and 4 were gone with the rest of the year open. Then a strange thing happened on February 24. The last week of April through June 9 filled at the same time. I do not know the explanation but question whether all those rooms and dates were actually reserved at the same time. Some of those dates in May and June days opened up later, and at the end of April, June still had 20 days open.
In early June another strange event happened resulting in 21 days of July and 27 days in Aug showing as filled. However, that changed and on June 20, July was open for 27 days, and Aug was open for 21 days. On July 8, July still had 10 days in the remainder of the month still open while Aug was still open for 12. At the end of July, September had 12 days open. October through Dec filled on average about 4 to 5 months out although a small number of dates in mid-Oct, race weekend in November, Thanksgiving time, first week of Dec and Christmas week filled near the 7-month window.
The fill rate for bungalows has been slower this year than for the VGF GV's but, of course, there are only 6 GV's. Those GV's also had many days open at 60 days out during the mid-Jan to late Sep time period but not near as many as Poly. Currently the bungalows are open mid-Jan 2017 and thereafter, matching SSR GV's, but other GV's are showing more fill time.
I do not perceive any reason to lower Poly bungalow points and raise studios. That should never be done just because bungalows are not filling before the breakage point at 60 days out. That would also be true for any resort that has GVs. The only possible reason to ever lower bungalow and raise studio points would be because the studios are showing serious reservation problems, but Poly is not showing that. Poly studios have had no issues of filling quickly at the 11-month window -- for the mid-Jan to late Sep period this year (and thus far next year through late March), they were usually open at 7 months out and beyond. For the late Sep to marathon weekend in Jan period, only some of the very high demand dates filled before 7 months out this year. Open dates did tend to fill extremely quickly at 8 a.m. at 7 months out, but as a near park resort, Poly stood alone in even having studios to get much of the time at 7 months out. Moreover, that high demand quarter is a seasonal issue for all of WDW DVC and thus the fix, if any, would be shifting points among seasons not between the bungalows and studios. Poly's situation is likely to become somewhat worse as it approaches sell out, but with the huge number of studios it has, it has a decent chance of avoiding problems like the one that has developed at VGF where studios can be difficult to get even at 11 months out at a number of times during that high demand last quarter of the year.
The issue I perceive with Poly is the future of DVC that it is creating, which actually started with VGF. In the 2 1/2 year period before VGF went on sale, Disney raised the price per point for BLT, after it was already close to sell out, by 40% when inflation was next to nothing. Thus, when it introduced VGF at a price just below BLT, Disney was able to create the impression among purchasers that VGF was a bargain when, in fact, it was being sold at a price much higher than almost all of BLT had been sold. Added to the increase in price was an increase in points needed per night at VGF for like rooms over BLT, thus adding to the increased cost to the purchaser. That high price per point and points per night, along with a low 100 point minimum purchase for new purchasers, and the low number of studios at VGF, caused the problem that exists now at VGF for getting studios because far too many purchased there to get only studios.
That oversell-of-studios business model continued with Poly, but sheer numbers of studios might save it from having the VGF 11-month problem. There is still only a 100 point minimum. There is the very high price per point combined with high points per night. Then there are the bungalows which add a huge number of points to sell to mostly purchasers who are buying enough points to get only studios, e.g., it is not likely you are going to have large numbers of purchasers spending the $200,000 needed to get a week during magic season in a bungalow. That kind of purchaser has never been Disney's target audience. Moreover, there is no in-between option for purchasers to decide to purchase enough points to possibly get a 1BR or 2BR; thus the decision being made by most purchasers is to buy only enough points for a studio even if they could afford more. Disney is creating a huge class of owners who have enough points to get only studios, including when they look to reserve other near park options at 7 months out. Meanwhile, Disney has created the five person studio at other near park DVC resorts that exists with Poly. Thus, one of the effects of the Poly model will be to significantly increase the demand for studios at the 7-month window for other near park resorts.
In addition, Disney gets the best of all worlds with the bungalows. It has created signature accommodations that it can put on advertisements promoting WDW in general and passes on the costs of building them to DVC purchasers. It can charge large amounts a night for a number of them when not reserved by 60 days out by members, and likely that is going to end up being for a significant amount of time. And that breakage rental income will be almost all profit. except for a small percentage that goes to offset dues, because it is those Poly DVC members who purchased to get only studios who are going to pay for the operation and maintenance of those bungalows through dues. That model seems to be carrying over to the new Copper Creek at WL with the creation of cabins on the beach that are likely to also cost a fortune in combined price per point and points per night, although Copper Creek may end up having something other than studios in the redone portion of WL. In other words, with Poly and soon-to-be Copper Creek, Disney has discovered the way to increase its hotel business, at least part-time, with signature units, and have someone else, the DVC members, pay for the construction and maintenance of those units.
A random point for which the explanation may arguably be that Disney does not really want members taking the bungalows once you are at the 60-day window is that the new tool on its site that tells what is still open at 60 days out usually has not provided most of the bungalow days that are still open. Of course, the explanation could alternatively be the usual one, that Disney's IT group has once again created a system that does not work correctly.
Last edited:
Deb & Bill
DVC-Trivia Contest, Apr-2006: Honorable Mention
- Joined
- Mar 20, 2000
Gosh, I love the way you think, drusba. You almost sound like Mr Spoke talking about DVC. Excellent observations and analysis.
freediverdude
Was very touched by the Tapestry of Dreams parade
- Joined
- Jun 16, 2002
I loved the line "Disney could stick a small tent on the beach, charge 100 points per night, and fill it by 4 months out for that time of year" lol.
Lakegirl
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Nov 2, 2014
You made some great points!
Dean, I don't necessarily disagree with anything that you have said here.
I amuses me that some are so quick to label to the bungalows a failure or give warnings about probably reallocations without doing any homework whatsoever. I do not recall grand villa occupancy every being under a microscope, despite similar high costs and much larger supply throughout the DVC program.
It will take many years for the situation to play out, before DVC should entertain the thought of a reallocation. But at this point, I don't see anything markedly different from Grand Villas in terms of availability. I suspect bungalow booking patterns are similar to what DVC projected from the outset.
Dean
DIS Veteran<br><a href="http://www.wdwinfo.com/dis
- Joined
- Aug 19, 1999
Tim, I think we agree other than which side of the fence we fall to. Certainly it will take years before we, or DVC, has enough information to make any changes and even if they did, they likely won't during active sales. A reallocation will prove the issue, lack of one won't necessarily prove the opposite. DVC will have a lot of information though even now given their pooled stats. In reality the Bungalows are a specialty item, basically a 2 BR at a high end 3 BR price. My prediction is they will be a failure at the current level if we define success as a demand such that they book up at a similar speed to other 2 BR villas, which is the best comparison IMO. In reality they will likely lag behind the 2 BR by a long shot and the 3 BR as well. My prediction.
Share this page
-
New Treats at Vivoli il Gelato in Disney Springs at Walt Disney World
-
Nothing is Amore About Mama Melrose's New Menu at Disney's Hollywood Studios
-
Two Guest-Favorite Guided Tours Return to the Disneyland Resort
-
Need Help Planning the Itinerary for Your Walt Disney World Vacation?
-
How Many Days Do I Need to Enjoy Walt Disney World?
GET A DISNEY VACATION QUOTE
Dreams Unlimited Travel is committed to providing you with the very best vacation planning experience possible. Our Vacation Planners are experts and will share their honest advice to help you have a magical vacation.
Let us help you with your next Disney Vacation!
Dreams Unlimited Travel is committed to providing you with the very best vacation planning experience possible. Our Vacation Planners are experts and will share their honest advice to help you have a magical vacation.
Let us help you with your next Disney Vacation!
